National Weather Service Area Forecast Discussion for Long Beach, WA USA

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland, OR
230 pm pst fri feb  3 2012

.synopsis...strong high pressure aloft and steady offshore surface
gradients will be over the pacific northwest through the weekend and
into monday. another splitting system brings a threat of
precipitation tuesday.

&&

.short term...the upper level ridge axis has begun to tilt inland as
the main upper high moves east to northern montana and alberta.
through the weekend this will set up a high-over-low blocking pattern
which will help to keep any weak incoming shortwaves at bay. this
translates to continued dry and relatively clear weather through at
least sunday and maybe into monday over the entire forecast area.
with a surface high over eastern washington through sunday offshore
flow will continue through much of the weekend and will be
concentrated through the gorge. 18z run of the nam keeps kttd-kdls
pressure gradients between -5 and -8 mb through the day sunday and
will likely continue into monday. this will provide gusty conditions
through the gorge and in outflow areas into early next
week...prohibiting any fog or low stratus development in these
locations. brown

.long term...dry pattern holds through a much deeper low in the ern
pacific approaches the coast late monday into tuesday. this coupled
with a colder air mass dropping south out of canada into the northern
rockies will allow the offshore gradient to become even stronger.
models continue to advertise a weak system pushing through the ridge
on tue. however...it looks like a lot of the upper level energy will
dive south into california...limiting the impacts for the forecast
area. it appears the coast and southern inland areas stand the best
chance to get some light precip tue. after this system...the ridge
will rebuild again...keeping the weather quiet for another couple of
days. weishaar/brown

&&

.aviation...vfr conditions expected tonight and friday due to
offshore flow. best chance for any ifr fog tonight will be across the
south willamette valley where dewpoints are a bit higher.

kpdx and approaches...vfr conditions are expected today and
tonight in offshore low level flow.

&&

.marine...winds will remain below advisory criteria for the next
few days as high pressure anchors itself inland. the next chance
of small craft advisory winds looks to be monday and tuesday with
the next front...but this system will likely weaken and split as
it approaches the coast so the models may be overestimating the
winds...we will see.

seas are currently below 10 ft...but are forecast to exceed 10 ft
tonight through saturday and possibly into early sunday.

&&

.pqr watches/warnings/advisories...
or...air stagnation advisory until 4 am pst tuesday for central
     willamette valley-lower columbia-south willamette valley.

wa...air stagnation advisory until 4 am pst tuesday for i-5 corridor
     in cowlitz county-south washington cascade foothills.

pz...small craft advisory for hazardous seas from 10 pm this evening
     to 6 am pst sunday for coastal waters from cape shoalwater
     wa to florence or out 60 nm.

     small craft advisory for rough bar from midnight tonight to 4
    pm pst saturday for columbia river bar.

&&

$$

more weather information online at...
http://weather.gov/portland

this discussion is for northwest oregon and southwest washington from
the cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. the area is commonly
referred to as the forecast area.