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National Weather Service Area Forecast Discussion for Long Beach, WA USA

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fxus66 kpqr 272153
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland, OR or
251 pm pdt sat may 27 2017

.synopsis...an upper level ridge of high pressure will bring clouds
and cool temperatures to the coast and warmer and drier weather
inland. thunderstorm chances develop monday over the cascades but
continue tuesday and expand westward to the valley as well.
temperatures trend gradually cooler with rain chances during the
second half of the week as a disturbance tracks across the pacific
northwest.

&&

.short term...today through tuesday...water vapor satellite imagery
reveals a shortwave ridge over the northeast pacific. the ridge axis
will slowly shift inland through monday, which will produce little
change in the overall weather pattern except for gradually cooling
temperatures and an increase in marine clouds pushing inland each
morning. steeper mid level lapse rates moving into the region will
open the door to the possibility of some showers and thunderstorms
developing near the cascade crest late monday afternoon and evening.
a slight southeasterly component to the steering flow could allow a
few showers to drift towards the willamette valley monday evening,
but confidence in this scenario is low at this point.

as we move forward in time, the next shortwave trough is forecasted
to impact the region on tuesday. operational model guidance continues
to waver on rain chances for tuesday with the latest ec coming in
quite dry. given the basic pattern and a number of ensemble members
continue to show a pattern favorable for at least some shower and
thunderstorm development, will maintain chance to low end likely pops
for tuesday afternoon and evening. /neuman

.long term...tuesday night through saturday...a cooler onshore flow
pattern looks to take hold during the second half of the week. cooled
temperatures closer to model consensus for much of this period as a
result. rain chances continue to vary wildly among different models
so left a fairly generic rain forecast at this point. however, pops
were increased most periods, particularly during the afternoon and
evening hours when daytime heating may trigger at least some showers
across the area, especially if the upper level trough lingers over
the region. /neuman


&&


.aviation...ifr conditions have improved to vfr at astoria, but
are still holding on to ifr at newport. still expect a brief
period of vfr lat this afternoon/evening at newport, but it
likely won`t last long. vfr conditions will continue inland
through the period.

kpdx and approaches...vfr today and tonight. /bentley


&&


.marine...winds will continue below 20 kt through at least the
middle of next week. northerly winds continue over most of the
waters through the weekend. however nearshore winds will switch
back to out of the south again tonight, accompanied again by low
stratus and/or fog.

seas have settled in the 6 to 7 foot range and will settle to
around 5 ft through most of next week. decided not to issue a
small craft advisory for rough bar for tomorrow morning`s ebb
given the relatively benign reports from the morning ebb today
and similar conditions tomorrow. /bentley


&&


.pqr watches/warnings/advisories...
or...none.
wa...none.
pz...none.


&&


$$

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this discussion is for northwest oregon and southwest washington
from the cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. the area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.

Information courtesy of the National Weather Service - NWS Portland...
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