Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Dec 01 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 01-Dec 03 2023 is 7.00 (NOAA Scale
G3).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 01-Dec 03 2023

             Dec 01       Dec 02       Dec 03
00-03UT       5.00 (G1)    5.00 (G1)    2.33     
03-06UT       6.00 (G2)    4.33         2.67     
06-09UT       7.00 (G3)    4.67 (G1)    2.00     
09-12UT       5.33 (G1)    2.33         2.00     
12-15UT       4.67 (G1)    2.67         2.67     
15-18UT       4.33         2.33         2.67     
18-21UT       3.33         3.00         2.67     
21-00UT       4.00         3.00         2.67     

Rationale: Geomagnetic storm levels are likely to begin early on 01 Dec,
with G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) levels anticipated due to CME arrival and
associated effects. Active to G1 conditions are likely on 02 Dec as CME
progression continues, but weakens.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 01-Dec 03 2023

              Dec 01  Dec 02  Dec 03
S1 or greater   15%     15%     15%

Rationale: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at
background, however, there is a slight chance of a S1 (Minor) event due
to the slight risk of a solar energetic proton event from Region 3500
all three days.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 01-Dec 03 2023

              Dec 01        Dec 02        Dec 03
R1-R2           35%           35%           35%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) and a slight
chance of an isolated R3 (Strong) radio blackouts on 01-03 Dec primarily
due to the flare probability of Region 3500.

Real Time Images of the Sun

SOHO EIT 304

SOHO EIT 284

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind

Latest LASCO Solar Corona Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO).

Real-Time Solar Wind Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Solar X-ray Flux This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites.

Satellite Environment Plot The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

Space Weather Overview

Solar Cycle

Sun Spot Number Progression This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression.

F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES

Northern Hemi Auroral Map

Southern Hemi Auroral Map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.

VHF and HF Band Conditions

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