735 
ACPN50 PHFO 061707
TWOCP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM HST Sun Sep 06 2026

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lowell, located several hundred miles south-southwest of Lihue,
Hawaii, on Tropical Storm Karina, located several hundred miles
east-northeast of the Hawaiian Islands, and on Hurricane Marie,
located several hundred miles west-southwest of Punta Eugenia,
Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen
NNNN
      

...LOWELL TURNS TO THE NORTH... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON KAUAI AND NIIHAU BY LATE MONDAY... As of 11:00 AM HST Sun Sep 06 the center of Lowell was located near 15.2, -163.7 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Sep 06 2026 000
WTPA34 PHFO 062046
TCPCP4
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Lowell Advisory Number  43
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sun Sep 06 2026
 
...LOWELL TURNS TO THE NORTH...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON KAUAI AND NIIHAU BY LATE
MONDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 163.7W
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM SSW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 565 MI...915 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to
French Frigate Shoals
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Hawaiian Islands and the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument should monitor the
progress of Lowell.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lowell was located 
near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 163.7 West. Lowell is moving 
toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A northward to 
north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected 
through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lowell will 
move across portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National 
Monument, just west of the main Hawaiian Islands, Monday night. 
Lowell is forecast to turn toward the northwest and slow down by 
early Wednesday after passing the Hawaiian Islands.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate 
that maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Lowell is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Little change in strength is expected 
through today, but gradual weakening is forecast to begin tonight. 
Lowell is expected to remain a hurricane while passing near Hawaii.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).
 
The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 948 mb 
(28.00 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lowell can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP4 and WMO header WTPA44
PHFO.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in Kauai County by
Monday afternoon or evening. Wind speeds atop and on the windward
and leeward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent
stronger than the near-surface winds, and wind gusts to hurricane
force are possible. 

Hurricane conditions are expected in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine 
National Monument between Nihoa and French Frigate Shoals Monday 
night, with tropical storm conditions beginning Monday afternoon.
 
RAINFALL: Lowell is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 10 
inches for Kauai, with maximum totals of 14 inches possible. For 
the Big Island, 4 to 8 inches of rain is expected with isolated
totals of 12 inches possible. For Maui, 2 to 4 inches of rain is
expected, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible. Across
the remaining islands, rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is possible. This
rainfall may produce significant flash flooding and mudslides,
especially across Kauai County and portions of the Big Island.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Lowell, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep12.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Kauai County...1-3 ft
Oahu...Up to 1 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances.
 
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp4.shtml?peakSurge.
 
TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are possible near Kauai and Niihau
Monday afternoon through Monday night. A few tornadoes are also
possible across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands.
 
SURF: Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions during the next several days across
many of the Hawaiian islands. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 06 2026 000
WTPA24 PHFO 062046
TCMCP4
 
HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  43
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC SUN SEP 06 2026
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 163.7W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  948 MB
EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE  40SE  40SW  45NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE 110SW 140NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 270SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 163.7W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 163.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.3N 163.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.5N 162.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.4N 161.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  40SE  35SW  35NW.
50 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.2N 161.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 26.4N 162.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  90SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 27.6N 163.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE  80SW 130NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 28.0N 167.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE  50SE  40SW  80NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 27.9N 170.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...130NE  90SE   0SW  90NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 163.7W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 PHFO/HFOTCPCP4...AT 07/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Sep 06 2026 507 
WTPA44 PHFO 062047
TCDCP4
 
Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number  43
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sun Sep 06 2026

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission is currently
investigating Lowell and on their first pass through the eye found
that the central pressure has risen to 948 mb. The highest 700-mb
flight-level wind so far is 109 kt. Satellite images show that the
eye has grown in size this morning and is now about 30 n mi in
diameter. Based on the rise in pressure and the flight-level winds
measured on this and the previous mission, the initial intensity is
now set at 105 kt.
 
Lowell has turned toward the north with an estimated motion of
350/5 kt. The steering continues to be dominated by a cutoff
mid-/upper-level low located north-northeast of Hawaii, which is
forecast to move west-southwestward and cause Lowell to accelerate
toward the north and north-northeast through Monday night. The
track guidance has shifted a bit to the east again, and the
typically better-performing HCCA and GDMI models as well as HAFS-A
and -B lie along the eastern edge of the envelope. The NHC official
forecast has also been nudged eastward to account for recent model
trends. The wind risk for Kauai and Niihau has trended upward based
on the latest track and size forecast, with the 50-kt wind radii now
crossing Niihau in about 36 hours. Accounting for the potential
of additional eastward shifts, as well as the terrain, there 
is an increasing chance of gusts to hurricane force on those 
islands.
 
After the center passes the Hawaiian Islands, model guidance is in
good agreement that Lowell will turn westward by early Friday,
but there is some disagreement on the sharpness of that turn.
 
Lowell's intensity is expected to remain fairly steady for the next 
12 hours before south-southwesterly shear increases. Gradual 
weakening should begin by tonight, and the NHC intensity forecast 
has generally been adjusted toward the latest IVCN, HCCA, and GDMI 
guidance. Lowell is now expected to weaken to a tropical storm by 
early Wednesday, after passing the Hawaiian Islands, due to the 
effects of continued shear and dry air. Some models are even 
suggesting that Lowell could lose deep convection and become 
post-tropical by day 5, but since there is a lot of uncertainty, the 
official forecast continues to keep tropical status through the 
forecast period.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Lowell's center is forecast to pass just west of Kauai County 
late Monday into early Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is in 
effect for Kauai County, including Kauai and Niihau, where tropical 
storm conditions are expected to begin Monday afternoon and 
continue through Tuesday morning. Wind gusts to hurricane force 
are possible atop mountains and on windward and leeward slopes.
 
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Lowell will begin to impact the 
Hawaiian Islands today and continue through early this week. Periods 
of heavy rain may produce significant flash flooding and mudslides, 
especially across Kauai County and portions of the Big Island.
 
3. Large swells from Lowell are expected to produce life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions across portions of the Hawaiian
Islands during the next several days. Surf along exposed portions
of Kauai County could produce coastal flooding and inundation of 
low-lying areas Monday through Monday night.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/2100Z 15.2N 163.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 16.3N 163.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 18.5N 162.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 21.4N 161.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 24.2N 161.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  09/0600Z 26.4N 162.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 27.6N 163.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 28.0N 167.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  11/1800Z 27.9N 170.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 06 2026 000
FOPA14 PHFO 062046
PWSCP4
                                                                    
HURRICANE LOWELL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  43                
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP122026         
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                    
2100 UTC SUN SEP 06 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 163.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
21N 158W       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BARKING SANDS  34  X   X( X)  53(53)  10(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)
BARKING SANDS  50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
BARKING SANDS  64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
HONOLULU       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
JOINT BASE PHH 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
26N 159W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)   8(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 
LIHUE          34  X   X( X)  34(34)   7(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
LIHUE          50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 160W       34  X   8( 8)  42(50)   1(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
20N 160W       50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
25N 160W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  60(62)   8(70)   X(70)   X(70)
25N 160W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   5(19)   X(19)   X(19)
25N 160W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
30N 160W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
NIIHAU         34  X   1( 1)  67(68)   6(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
NIIHAU         50  X   X( X)  11(11)   8(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
NIIHAU         64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
21N 160W       34  X   2( 2)  62(64)   1(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
21N 160W       50  X   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
21N 160W       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
BUOY 51003     34  X  55(55)  17(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)
BUOY 51003     50  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
BUOY 51003     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
NIHOA          34  X   X( X)  64(64)  32(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
NIHOA          50  X   X( X)  11(11)  60(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
NIHOA          64  X   X( X)   2( 2)  43(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
 
BUOY 51101     34  X   X( X)  11(11)  70(81)   4(85)   X(85)   X(85)
BUOY 51101     50  X   X( X)   X( X)  39(39)   7(46)   X(46)   X(46)
BUOY 51101     64  X   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   6(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
22N 164W       34  X   1( 1)  26(27)   3(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 
NECKER         34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
15N 165W       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
15N 165W       50  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 165W       34  X   7( 7)   4(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
25N 165W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
30N 165W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  16(27)   1(28)
30N 165W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
30N 165W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
GARDNER PINN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
30N 170W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)
 
MARO REEF      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
LAYSAN         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG

 

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Sep 2026 20:48:33 GMT

      

Issued at 1053 AM HST

...KARINA EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL GALE BY TONIGHT... As of 11:00 AM HST Sun Sep 06 the center of Karina was located near 22.9, -145.5 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Sep 06 2026 000
WTPA35 PHFO 062031
TCPCP5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number  42
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP112026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sun Sep 06 2026
 
...KARINA EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL GALE BY TONIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 145.5W
ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM ENE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 145.5 West. Karina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next day or two,
along with an increase in forward speed.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Weakening is expected, and Karina is forecast to
become a post-tropical gale by late tonight.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 06 2026 000
WTPA25 PHFO 062030
TCMCP5
 
TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  42
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP112026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC SUN SEP 06 2026
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 145.5W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE  80SE  60SW 140NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 120SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 145.5W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 145.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.0N 146.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...110NE  40SE  30SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.3N 148.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.9N 151.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 145.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Sep 06 2026 000
WTPA45 PHFO 062031
TCDCP5
 
Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number  42
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP112026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sun Sep 06 2026

Karina continues to lack deep convection as it moves through a dry 
airmass.  The latest subjective intensity estimates are a consensus 
35 kt from PHFO and JTWC, while objective intensity estimates range 
from 32-41 kt.  The initial intensity is reduced to 45 kt for this 
advisory.
 
Karina has slowed down and turned west-northwestward with an initial 
motion estimate of 300/5 kt.  A westward to west-northwestward 
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next 
day or so as Karina gets pulled westward by a mid-level low to its 
west and ridging builds in to the north of Karina.  The track 
forecast is similar to the previous one and is close to the HCCA and 
the GDMI.
 
Karina will continue moving through a very dry airmass, over the 
next day or two.  This, combined with a continuation of moderate 
west-southwesterly wind shear and sea-surface temperatures in the 
25-26C range should lead to continued weakening, and Karina is 
unlikely to redevelop any significant deep convection.  Therefore, 
the NHC forecast now calls for Karina to become post-tropical within 
the next 12 h.  The cyclone is likely to hold onto gale-force winds 
for another 24-30 h as it gradually spins down.  By Tuesday, the low 
should dissipate when it gets sheared apart by the combination of a 
powerful mid- to upper-level trough and outflow from Hurricane 
Lowell.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/2100Z 22.9N 145.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 23.0N 146.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  07/1800Z 23.3N 148.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  08/0600Z 23.9N 151.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 06 2026 000
FOPA15 PHFO 062031
PWSCP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  42           
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP112026         
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                    
2100 UTC SUN SEP 06 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 145.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
25N 145W       34 10   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
25N 150W       34  X   4( 4)   8(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER HAGEN

 

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Sep 2026 20:34:17 GMT

      

      531 
ABPZ20 KNHC 061707
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 6 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Lowell, located several hundred miles south-southwest of Lihue, 
Hawaii, on Tropical Storm Karina, located several hundred miles 
east-northeast of the Hawaiian Islands, and on Hurricane Marie, 
located several hundred miles west-southwest of Punta Eugenia, 
Mexico.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles 
south-southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this 
system is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the 
middle or latter portions of this week while the system moves 
generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen
      

...MARIE TO CONTINUE PRODUCING DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Sep 06 the center of Marie was located near 24.0, -122.9 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 06 2026 035 
WTPZ33 KNHC 062034
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Marie Advisory Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026
200 PM PDT Sun Sep 06 2026
 
...MARIE TO CONTINUE PRODUCING DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
FOR ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 122.9W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SSW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located
near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 122.9 West. Marie is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west-
northwest is forecast tonight. Marie is then expected to resume a
northwestward heading at a faster forward speed on Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected to continue for the
next several days, and Marie is forecast to become a post-tropical
remnant low on Wednesday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwest Mexico, the Baja California Peninsula, and
Southern California for the next few days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip
current risk for the United States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ripCurrents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 06 2026 034 
WTPZ23 KNHC 062034
TCMEP3
 
HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132026
2100 UTC SUN SEP 06 2026
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 122.9W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 140SE 140SW 150NW.
4 M SEAS....270NE 240SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 122.9W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 122.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 24.4N 123.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.0N 124.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 25.6N 126.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 26.7N 127.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 28.6N 128.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 30.7N 129.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 34.6N 132.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 122.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 06 2026 393 
WTPZ43 KNHC 062036
TCDEP3
 
Hurricane Marie Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026
200 PM PDT Sun Sep 06 2026
 
Satellite imagery shows that Marie continues to gradually lose 
convective organization. The latest subjective Dvorak estimate from 
TAFB is 65 kt, and objective intensity estimates have fallen to the 
55-62 range. A 1734 UTC partial ASCAT-B overpass shows some 50-kt 
vectors in the eastern semicircle.  The initial intensity is lowered 
to a possibly generous 65 kt for this advisory.

Marie is still moving northwestward, with an initial motion 
estimate of 315/6 kt.  A bend more to the west-northwest is expected 
tonight as the mid- to upper-level trough north of Marie currently 
causing the northwestward motion moves eastward on Monday and 
loosens its grip on Marie.  Then, another mid- to upper-level low 
will strengthen over the Pacific to the northwest of Marie, causing 
a turn back toward the northwest, or possibly north-northwest on 
Tuesday.  The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one 
and closely follows the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) and Google 
DeepMind Ensemble Mean (GDMI).  Based on the spread in the guidance, 
confidence in the track forecast is near average.
 
Marie is traveling over 25 C sea-surface temperatures and through a 
dry airmass.  The cyclone will continue moving over progressively 
cooler water and into a progressively drier airmass over the next 
couple of days.  Therefore, continued steady weakening is forecast.  
Although vertical wind shear is weak right now, southwesterly shear 
is forecast to increase in 36-48 h as Marie approaches the 
aforementioned mid- to upper-level low to its northwest.  Little to 
no change has been made to the previous NHC intensity forecast.  
This forecast lies near the higher end of the guidance suite.  Marie 
is now forecast to lose it's convection and become a post-tropical 
remnant low by day 3 (Wednesday).  After the system becomes 
post-tropical, global models show it weakening and dissipating in 4 
to 5 days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/2100Z 24.0N 122.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 24.4N 123.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 25.0N 124.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 25.6N 126.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 26.7N 127.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  09/0600Z 28.6N 128.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 30.7N 129.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  10/1800Z 34.6N 132.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 06 2026 938 
FOPZ13 KNHC 062035
PWSEP3
                                                                    
HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  23                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132026               
2100 UTC SUN SEP 06 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
25N 125W       34 71  16(87)   2(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
25N 125W       50  1  25(26)   4(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
25N 125W       64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
30N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   1(14)   X(14)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER HAGEN

 

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Sep 2026 20:37:17 GMT

      

      080 
ABNT20 KNHC 061706
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen
      

No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 06 Sep 2026 20:57:38 GMT