497 
ACPN50 PHFO 230524
TWOCP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM HST Wed Jul 22 2026

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fausto, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula.

Well Southwest of Hawaii:
A trough of low pressure located well southwest of the Hawaiian
Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves
slowly westward to west-northwestward. The system is forecast to
move into the western Pacific basin late this weekend or early next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

&&
Products issued by the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center can be
found at: www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html

Official tropical cyclone forecast information issued by the Japan
Meteorological Agency for the western Pacific basin can be found at:
www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/RSMC_HP.htm

$$
Forecaster Kelly
NNNN
      

No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 23 Jul 2026 09:53:39 GMT

      498 
ABPZ20 KNHC 230524
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Jul 22 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Fausto, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja 
California Peninsula.

Eastern and Central East Pacific:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the 
coast of southern Mexico continues to produce a large area of 
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive 
for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form late this week into the weekend, while it moves 
generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well 
offshore of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Well Southwest of Hawaii:
A trough of low pressure located well southwest of the Hawaiian 
Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual 
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves 
slowly westward to west-northwestward. The system is forecast to 
move into the western Pacific basin late this weekend or early next 
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

&&
Products issued by the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center can be 
found at: www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html

Official tropical cyclone forecast information issued by the Japan 
Meteorological Agency for the western Pacific basin can be found at:
www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/RSMC_HP.htm

$$
Forecaster Kelly
      

...FAUSTO HOLDING STEADY... As of 11:00 PM HST Wed Jul 22 the center of Fausto was located near 17.8, -124.0 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM HST Wed Jul 22 2026 347 
WTPZ31 KNHC 230834
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Fausto Advisory Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062026
1100 PM HST Wed Jul 22 2026
 
...FAUSTO HOLDING STEADY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 124.0W
ABOUT 980 MI...1575 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 2035 MI...3275 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fausto was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 124.0 West. Fausto is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A continued
west-northwestward to westward motion, along with an increase in
forward speed, is expected over the next several days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity could occur over the next day 
or so but Fausto is forecast to gradually weaken thereafter.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Fausto are affecting portions of the west
coast of the Baja California Peninsula and are spreading northward
toward the coast of southern California. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?ripCurrents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 23 2026 525 
WTPZ21 KNHC 230833
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE FAUSTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062026
0900 UTC THU JUL 23 2026
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 124.0W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  40SE  10SW  50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 160SE  50SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 165SE 135SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 124.0W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 123.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 18.0N 126.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 35NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 70NE  40SE  10SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE  60SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 18.3N 128.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 35NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  10SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE  70SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.6N 131.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE  70SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 18.8N 134.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  70SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.1N 136.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.5N 139.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 19.8N 144.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  40SW  90NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 20.5N 149.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  80NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 124.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 1100 PM HST Wed Jul 22 2026 386 
WTPZ41 KNHC 230835
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062026
1100 PM HST Wed Jul 22 2026
 
Fausto's satellite appearance has become rather ragged since the 
previous advisory. Proxy-vis and infrared imagery show a ragged eye 
feature, with much of the convection on the western side of the 
system eroded by drier air. Cloud tops have started to warm as well. 
That being said, a 0600 UTC ASCAT-C scatterometer pass showed 
satellite-derived winds around 58 kt, though given the instrument's 
undersampling bias, peak winds are likely higher. Satellite 
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 53 to 68 kt, and the CI 
value from TAFB is T4.5/77 kt, although the data-T value did drop to 
T4.0/65 kt for this advisory. Taking all this into account, the 
initial intensity for this advisory is held at 70 kt, although that 
could be generous given the degrading satellite appearance.
 
The system has started to increase in forward speed and is moving at 
an estimated motion of 285/10 kt. Fausto should continue to move 
west-northwestward to westward along the southern edge of a 
strengthening ridge to the north of the system. The track model 
guidance is in fairly good agreement through day 3. Beyond that 
period, there is increasing along-track spread, with the GDMI and 
HCCA guidance farther south and much faster than the rest of the 
model guidance, with the GFS being the slowest and farther north. 
The difference is about 300 n mi between the GFS and GDMI solutions. 
The official NHC forecast continues to trend toward the faster HCCA 
corrected-consensus and GDMI model solutions.
 
Fausto will remain in a low-shear environment, tracking parallel to 
the 26C–27C isotherms. The primary inhibiting factor will be the dry 
air that lies ahead, with mid-level relative humidity values 
dropping below 50 percent in 2–3 days. The system has already been 
periodically ingesting dry air from the north and west over the last 
day or so. This will lead to a gradual weakening trend, and the 
intensity forecast is highly sensitive to how well Fausto can fend 
off dry air from intruding into the inner core. The NHC intensity 
forecast calls for gradual weakening throughout the period, although 
fluctuations in intensity are possible. This forecast lies near the 
higher end of the model guidance, as some models move the system 
farther north and weaken it more quickly. It should be noted any 
northward track deviations would cause Fausto to weaken even faster 
than currently forecast.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0900Z 17.8N 124.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 18.0N 126.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 18.3N 128.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 18.6N 131.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 18.8N 134.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  25/1800Z 19.1N 136.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  26/0600Z 19.5N 139.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  27/0600Z 19.8N 144.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  28/0600Z 20.5N 149.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 23 2026 000
FOPZ11 KNHC 230834
PWSEP1
                                                                    
HURRICANE FAUSTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  18                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062026               
0900 UTC THU JUL 23 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FAUSTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 125W       34 14   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
20N 130W       34  X  23(23)  35(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
20N 130W       50  X   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  42(43)  22(65)   X(65)   X(65)
20N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  13(23)   X(23)   X(23)
20N 135W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  50(50)  18(68)   X(68)
20N 140W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)  14(31)   X(31)
20N 140W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   X(11)
 
20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  38(38)  14(52)
20N 145W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   9(21)
20N 145W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
 
20N 150W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  27(27)
20N 150W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
20N 150W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
20N 151W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)
20N 151W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
BUOY 51004     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
20N 154W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KELLY

 

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Jul 2026 09:28:34 GMT

      

      000
ABNT20 KNHC 230525
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Bertha, just offshore of the southern Louisiana coast.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly
      

...BERTHA MOVING WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST... ...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST TODAY... As of 4:00 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 the center of Bertha was located near 29.0, -92.2 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026 000
WTNT32 KNHC 230837
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022026
400 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026
 
...BERTHA MOVING WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST...
...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST
TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 92.2W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM WSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Louisiana 
coast east of the Terrebonne/Lafourche Parish line.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Gulf Coast from the Terrebonne/Lafourche Parish line,
Louisiana to Sargent, Texas
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was 
located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 92.2 West. Bertha is 
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A generally westward 
or west-northwestward motion is expected through tonight, followed 
by a turn toward the west-southwest on Friday.  On the forecast 
track, the center of Bertha will move near or along the Louisiana 
and upper Texas coasts through this afternoon, and then move farther 
inland into Texas this evening and tonight.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today, and Bertha is forecast 
to maintain tropical storm intensity up until it reaches the upper 
Texas coast later today.  Bertha is expected to dissipate inland 
over Texas by tonight or Friday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center.  The National Ocean Service 
station at Eugene Island, Louisiana, recently reported sustained 
winds of 39 mph (62 km/h) with a wind gust of 47 mph (76 km/h). An 
oil platform southeast of the center of Bertha recently reported 
sustained winds of 56 mph (90 km/h) at an elevation of 102 ft    
(31 m).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across
portions of the northern and northwestern Gulf Coast within the
warning area through today.
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Port Bolivar, TX to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...1-3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.
 
RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2 
to 4 inches with isolated totals to 6 inches through tonight along 
Texas Gulf Coast and South Texas. This rainfall may produce isolated 
flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with 
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall 
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and 
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward
along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 23 2026 000
WTNT22 KNHC 230837
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022026
0900 UTC THU JUL 23 2026
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N  92.2W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 140SE 140SW   0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 150SE  30SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N  92.2W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N  91.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.3N  94.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 130SE  90SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.0N  97.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 28.5N 100.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N  92.2W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 23/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026 000
WTNT42 KNHC 230838
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022026
400 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Radar data and surface observations indicate that the center of 
Bertha has moved or re-formed offshore of the coast of southern 
Louisiana. The storm is producing a large area of intense convection 
over the southwestern quadrant, with the elongated low-level center 
at the northeastern edge of the convection. Surface observations and 
scatterometer data show that the maximum winds are near 40 kt and 
the minimum central pressure is near 1003 mb. Coastal Doppler radar 
data also shows that the mid-level center is displaced well to the 
southwest of the low-level center, and that there has been a 
persistent supercell thunderstorm with a mesocyclone moving westward 
through Bertha's southwestern quadrant.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 270/11 kt. As before, the 
steering mechanism is a large and strong mid-tropospheric 
anticyclone over the south-central United States. Bertha should move 
along the southern periphery of this feature for the next day or so, 
with the center reaching the upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana 
coasts later today. After landfall, a west-southwestward motion is 
forecast until the cyclone dissipates. The new forecast track is 
similar to the previous track. Some erratic motion could occur 
before landfall due to possible center reformation caused by 
convective bursts.

Continued moderate to strong northeasterly shear and dry air 
entrainment should prevent significant strengthening before 
landfall. Weakening is expected after landfall, and the cyclone is 
forecast to dissipated between 36-48 h.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward along
the northwestern Gulf Coast from south central Louisiana to the 
upper Texas coast today.
 
2. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for portions of the 
Mississippi and Louisiana coastlines, where moderate coastal 
flooding is expected.
 
3. Isolated flash flooding is possible along the Texas Gulf Coast 
and South Texas through tonight.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0900Z 29.0N  92.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 29.3N  94.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 29.0N  97.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  24/1800Z 28.5N 100.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 23 2026 000
FONT12 KNHC 230838
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022026               
0900 UTC THU JUL 23 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HOUMA LA       34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFAM 280N 910W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
MORGAN CITY LA 34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFAM 280N 930W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
LAKE CHARLES   34  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CAMERON LA     34 37   2(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
 
KOUNTZE TX     34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 12   3(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
GALVESTON TX   34 44  18(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
GALVESTON TX   50  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  2   8(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
SAN ANTONIO TX 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
FREEPORT TX    34 19  43(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
 
GFAM 280N 950W 34 36   7(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 
HIGH ISLAND TX 34 28  12(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
 
MATAGORDA TX   34  6  43(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  1  34(35)   1(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
 
ROCKPORT TX    34  X  18(18)   2(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   8( 8)   4(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
GFAM 270N 960W 34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN

 

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Jul 2026 09:22:52 GMT

      

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