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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean



NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
abnt20 knhc 192313
twoat 

tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
800 pm edt thu sep 19 2019

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico:

the national hurricane center is issuing advisories on hurricane
humberto, located several hundred miles northeast of bermuda, and on
hurricane jerry, located a few hundred miles east of the leeward
islands.

a tropical wave located over the central tropical atlantic is
producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers.  the
wave is expected to move quickly westward at about 20 mph during
the next few days, and some development is possible while it
approaches and moves across the windward islands this weekend.
upper-level winds appear less conducive for development once the
wave moves over the eastern caribbean sea early next week.
* formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

a broad area of low pressure located over the central caribbean sea
just south of hispaniola is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms to the east and northeast of its center of
circulation.  upper-level winds are not conducive for significant
development of this system while it moves slowly west-northwestward
at about 5 mph.  regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall
is possible over portions of the greater antilles during the next
few days.
* formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

a tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of africa
this weekend.  environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
early next week while the wave moves westward over the eastern
tropical atlantic.
* formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
forecaster berg


Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Humberto (AT4/AL092019)
...humberto becomes an extratropical cyclone... ...this is the last advisory...
 as of 11:00 pm ast thu sep 19
 the center of humberto was located near 40.0, -58.0
 with movement nne at 20 mph.
 the minimum central pressure was 965 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Humberto Public Advisory Number 30
issued at 1100 pm ast thu sep 19 2019  

000
wtnt34 knhc 200248
tcpat4

bulletin
post-tropical cyclone humberto advisory number  30
nws national hurricane center miami fl       al092019
1100 pm ast thu sep 19 2019

...humberto becomes an extratropical cyclone...
...this is the last advisory...


summary of 1100 pm ast...0300 utc...information
-----------------------------------------------
location...40.0n 58.0w
about 525 mi...845 km ssw of cape race newfoundland
maximum sustained winds...100 mph...155 km/h
present movement...nne or 30 degrees at 20 mph...31 km/h
minimum central pressure...965 mb...28.50 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


discussion and outlook
----------------------
at 1100 pm ast (0300 utc), the center of post-tropical cyclone
humberto was located near latitude 40.0 north, longitude 58.0 west.
the post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near
20 mph (31 km/h).  a slower north-northeastward motion is expected
tonight and friday.  a turn toward the east-northeast is expected to
commence by friday night.

maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts.  gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of
days.

hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 380
miles (610 km).

the estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


hazards affecting land
----------------------
surf:  large swells and dangerous surf generated by humberto will
continue along the coast of bermuda during the next day or two, and
these could continue to cause coastal flooding.

swells will continue to affect the northwestern bahamas and much of
the coast of the united states from east-central florida to the
mid-atlantic states during the next couple of days.

these swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  please consult products from your local weather office
and the bermuda weather service.


next advisory
-------------
this is the last public advisory issued by the national hurricane
center on this system.  additional information on this system can be
found in high seas forecasts issued by the national weather service,
under awips header nfdhsfat1, wmo header fznt01 kwbc, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/nfdhsfat1.php

$$
forecaster pasch



Post-Tropical Cyclone Humberto Forecast Advisory Number 30
issued at 0300 utc fri sep 20 2019  

000
wtnt24 knhc 200248
tcmat4

post-tropical cyclone humberto forecast/advisory number  30
nws national hurricane center miami fl       al092019
0300 utc fri sep 20 2019

there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

post-tropical cyclone center located near 40.0n  58.0w at 20/0300z
position accurate within  50 nm

present movement toward the north-northeast or  30 degrees at  17 kt

estimated minimum central pressure  965 mb
max sustained winds  85 kt with gusts to 105 kt.
64 kt....... 60ne  70se  70sw  60nw.
50 kt.......150ne 120se 120sw 120nw.
34 kt.......330ne 240se 180sw 330nw.
12 ft seas..360ne 540se 995sw 480nw.
winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant.  radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

repeat...center located near 40.0n  58.0w at 20/0300z
at 20/0000z center was located near 39.2n  58.4w

forecast valid 20/1200z 41.8n  56.8w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind  70 kt...gusts  85 kt.
64 kt...  0ne  50se  50sw   0nw.
50 kt...100ne  80se  80sw 100nw.
34 kt...270ne 200se 150sw 270nw.

forecast valid 21/0000z 44.0n  54.0w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind  60 kt...gusts  75 kt.
50 kt...  0ne  80se  80sw   0nw.
34 kt...200ne 200se 150sw 150nw.

forecast valid 21/1200z 45.5n  48.0w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind  55 kt...gusts  65 kt.
50 kt...  0ne  60se  80sw   0nw.
34 kt... 90ne 200se 180sw  90nw.

forecast valid 22/0000z 46.5n  40.5w...post-trop/extratrop
max wind  50 kt...gusts  60 kt.
50 kt...  0ne  60se  80sw   0nw.
34 kt... 60ne 200se 180sw  90nw.

forecast valid 23/0000z...dissipated

request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 40.0n  58.0w

this is the last forecast/advisory issued by the national hurricane
center on this system.  additional information on this system can be
found in high seas forecasts issued by the national weather
service...under awips header nfdhsfat1 and wmo header fznt01 kwbc.

$$
forecaster pasch




Post-Tropical Cyclone Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 30
issued at 1100 pm ast thu sep 19 2019  

000
wtnt44 knhc 200249
tcdat4

post-tropical cyclone humberto discussion number  30
nws national hurricane center miami fl       al092019
1100 pm ast thu sep 19 2019

satellite images show what little deep convection remains has been
displaced well to the north of the center of the cyclone, and it
can no longer be classified via the dvorak technique.  moreover,
cold air stratocumulus clouds over the western and southern
portions of the circulation are indicative of cold air advection
that is characteristic of an extratropical cyclone.  therefore,
humberto is now post-tropical and this will be the last advisory
issued by the national hurricane center on this system.

it is estimated that the cyclone still has hurricane-force winds
and based on continuity from previous estimates with a gradual
weakening rate, the current intensity is set at 85 kt.  continued
gradual weakening is likely, and after 48 hours the system is
expected to merge with another extratropical low over the north
atlantic.

the cyclone has turned north-northeastward along the eastern side
of a deep layer cyclonic circulation, with a current motion
estimate of 030/17 kt.  a turn toward the east-northeast is
expected in a day or so as the system moves within the mid-latitude
westerlies until dissipation.


key messages:

1. large swells will continue to affect bermuda, the northwestern
bahamas, and the east coast of the united states from east-central
florida to the mid-atlantic states during the next couple of days.
these swells could create life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.


forecast positions and max winds

init  20/0300z 40.0n  58.0w   85 kt 100 mph...post-trop/extratrop
 12h  20/1200z 41.8n  56.8w   70 kt  80 mph...post-trop/extratrop
 24h  21/0000z 44.0n  54.0w   60 kt  70 mph...post-trop/extratrop
 36h  21/1200z 45.5n  48.0w   55 kt  65 mph...post-trop/extratrop
 48h  22/0000z 46.5n  40.5w   50 kt  60 mph...post-trop/extratrop
 72h  23/0000z...dissipated

$$
forecaster pasch



Post-Tropical Cyclone Humberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
issued at 0300 utc fri sep 20 2019                                              

000
font14 knhc 200248
pwsat4
                                                                    
post-tropical cyclone humberto wind speed probabilities number  30  
nws national hurricane center miami fl       al092019               
0300 utc fri sep 20 2019                                            
                                                                    
at 0300z the center of post-tropical cyclone humberto was located   
near latitude 40.0 north...longitude 58.0 west with maximum         
sustained winds near 85 kts...100 mph...155 km/h.                   
                                                                    
z indicates coordinated universal time (greenwich)                  
   atlantic standard time (ast)...subtract 4 hours from z time      
   eastern  daylight time (edt)...subtract 4 hours from z time      
   central  daylight time (cdt)...subtract 5 hours from z time      
                                                                    
wind speed probability table for specific locations                 
                                                                    
chances of sustained (1-minute average) wind speeds of at least     
   ...34 kt (39 mph... 63 km/h)...                                  
   ...50 kt (58 mph... 93 km/h)...                                  
   ...64 kt (74 mph...119 km/h)...                                  
for locations and time periods during the next 5 days               
                                                                    
probabilities for locations are given as op(cp) where               
    op  is the probability of the event beginning during            
        an individual time period (onset probability)               
   (cp) is the probability of the event occurring between           
        00z fri and the forecast hour (cumulative probability)      
                                                                    
probabilities are given in percent                                  
x indicates probabilities less than 1 percent                       
probabilities for 34 kt and 50 kt are shown at a given location when
the 5-day cumulative probability is at least 3 percent.             
probabilities for 34...50...64 kt shown when the 5-day              
64-kt cumulative probability is at least 1 percent.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - wind speed probabilities for selected locations - - - -   
                                                                    
               from    from    from    from    from    from    from 
  time       00z fri 12z fri 00z sat 12z sat 00z sun 00z mon 00z tue
periods         to      to      to      to      to      to      to  
             12z fri 00z sat 12z sat 00z sun 00z mon 00z tue 00z wed
                                                                    
forecast hour    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
location       kt                                                   
                                                                    
hibernia oilfd 34  x   5( 5)  38(43)   4(47)   x(47)   x(47)   x(47)
hibernia oilfd 50  x   x( x)   5( 5)   2( 7)   x( 7)   x( 7)   x( 7)
 
cape race nfld 34  2  42(44)  10(54)   x(54)   x(54)   x(54)   x(54)
cape race nfld 50  x   1( 1)   2( 3)   x( 3)   x( 3)   x( 3)   x( 3)
 
ile st pierre  34  8  25(33)   x(33)   x(33)   x(33)   x(33)   x(33)
 
burgeo nfld    34  1   9(10)   x(10)   x(10)   x(10)   x(10)   x(10)
 
ptx basques    34  x   3( 3)   x( 3)   x( 3)   x( 3)   x( 3)   x( 3)
 
eddy point ns  34  2   1( 3)   x( 3)   x( 3)   x( 3)   x( 3)   x( 3)
 
sydney ns      34  6   5(11)   x(11)   x(11)   x(11)   x(11)   x(11)
 
sable island   34 74   1(75)   x(75)   x(75)   x(75)   x(75)   x(75)
 
$$                                                                  
forecaster pasch                                                    


Post-Tropical Cyclone Humberto Graphics



5-day uncertainty track last updated fri, 20 sep 2019 02:51:37 gmt

 
wind speed probabilities last updated fri, 20 sep 2019 03:24:55 gmt

Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
    ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND JERRY STRONGER... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 19 the center of Jerry was located near 18.0, -57.2 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Hurricane Jerry

  • Hurricane Jerry Public Advisory Number 11
    Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 200243 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND JERRY STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 57.2W ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 57.2 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion at a decreasing forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday and be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin by late Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas by early Friday. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch ]]>
  • Hurricane Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 11
    Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 200241 TCMAT5 HURRICANE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 57.2W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 57.2W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 56.5W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.8N 59.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.0N 62.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.2N 64.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.6N 66.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.7N 68.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 29.0N 67.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 35.0N 63.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 57.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ]]>
  • Hurricane Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 11
    Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 200246 TCDAT5 Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 The Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigating Jerry this evening found that the hurricane has strengthened. Based on the 700 mb flight-level winds from the aircraft, the current intensity is estimated to be about 90 kt. It should be noted that this is substantially higher than the intensity estimates provided from satellite data, and underscores the value of aerial reconnaissance of tropical cyclones. An expected increase in vertical shear in a day or so is expected to cause a weakening trend to commence in 12 to 24 hours, however, Jerry should remain a hurricane throughout the forecast period. This NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one mainly due to the higher initial wind speed, and is near or a little above the model consensus. Jerry remains on track and continues to move west-northwestward, or 295/14 kt. Over the next couple of days, the hurricane should continue this general motion with some slowing of forward speed as it moves along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge. Thereafter, Jerry is likely to turn to the northwest, then north-northwest, and north as it moves through a weakness in the ridge. The track prediction models are in good agreement on this scenario, and the official forecast is quite close to the previous one. This is also very similar to the NOAA corrected consensus model, or HCCA, track. Key Messages: 1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the northern Leeward Islands, life-threatening flash floods are possible, along with tropical-storm-force winds in some areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 18.0N 57.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 18.8N 59.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 20.0N 62.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 21.2N 64.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 22.6N 66.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 25.7N 68.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 29.0N 67.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 25/0000Z 35.0N 63.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch ]]>
  • Hurricane Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
    Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 200243 PWSAT5 HURRICANE JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 40(53) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT CROIX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT MAARTEN 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SABA 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST EUSTATIUS 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARBUDA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANTIGUA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUADELOUPE 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH ]]>
  • Hurricane Jerry Graphics
    Hurricane Jerry 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 02:49:27 GMT

    Hurricane Jerry 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 03:32:03 GMT ]]>


Eastern Pacific



NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

 


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
abpz20 knhc 192341
twoep 

tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
500 pm pdt thu sep 19 2019

for the eastern north pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

the national hurricane center is issuing advisories on tropical
storm kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the basin, on
tropical storm mario, located several hundred miles south of the
southern tip of the baja california peninsula, and on tropical storm
lorena, located near the islas marias islands.

thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area of low
pressure located over the far southwestern portion of the eastern
north pacific remains disorganized. some slow development of this
system is possible during the next day or two while it remains
nearly stationary.  further development is unlikely after that time
as the system interacts with and is possibly absorbed by kiko.
* formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

an area of low pressure could form south of the southern coast of
mexico in a day or two.  however, development into a tropical
cyclone during the next five days appears unlikely.
* formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
forecaster beven

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)
    ...KIKO LABORING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Kiko was located near 16.6, -129.6 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Kiko

  • Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 31
    Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 200252 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...KIKO LABORING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 129.6W ABOUT 1350 MI...2175 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 129.6 West. Kiko is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A slow motion between the west-northwest and west-southwest is forecast over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 31
    Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 200251 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 129.6W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 129.6W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 129.5W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.2N 130.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.7N 130.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.9N 131.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.6N 132.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.6N 134.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 17.0N 136.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 18.2N 137.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 129.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 31
    Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 200253 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Kiko's structure hasn't change much since the previous advisory. The asymmetric pattern of the convection suggests that the cyclone is under the influence of some shear, which UW-CIMMS is analyzing to be about 20 kt from the southwest. The initial intensity is being maintained at 45 kt based on consensus Dvorak estimates of T3.0 from TAFB and SAB. A break in the mid-level steering ridge has allowed Kiko to turn northwestward, or 305/5 kt. For the next 5 days, the ridge is expected to restrengthen and then weaken again as a mid- to upper-level trough digs southward. As a result, Kiko is expected to take a sinuous track while moving generally westward, staying between 16N-18N. Even with that expectation, there is significant divergence in the models toward the end of the forecast period, with the GFS showing Kiko meandering and the ECMWF keeping the cyclone on a determined westward course. Because of this uncertainty, the updated NHC track has been slowed down a bit from the previous one. There has been a significant change in the intensity guidance, with most of the models showing Kiko's strength decreasing for much of the forecast period. Because there is so much uncertainty, the new NHC intensity forecast brings Kiko's winds to 50 kt in 12 hours, and then flatlines that intensity through day 4. Weakening is possible by the end of the forecast period due to a potential increase in shear. Even though the updated NHC forecast has been lowered from the previous one, it is still above the HCCA model and the multi-model consensus aids, and additional adjustment could be required in subsequent advisories. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 16.6N 129.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 17.2N 130.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 17.7N 130.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 17.9N 131.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 17.6N 132.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 16.6N 134.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 17.0N 136.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 25/0000Z 18.2N 137.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31
    Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 200252 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 21(23) 11(34) 3(37) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) 2(15) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) $$ FORECASTER BERG ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics
    Tropical Storm Kiko 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 02:53:47 GMT

    Tropical Storm Kiko 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 03:38:35 GMT ]]>

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Mario (EP4/EP142019)
    ...MARIO A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 9:00 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Mario was located near 17.6, -110.2 with movement NE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm Mario

  • Tropical Storm Mario Public Advisory Number 11
    Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 200231 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...MARIO A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 110.2W ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 110.2 West. Mario is moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A sharp turn toward the north and northwest is expected on Friday and Saturday, with the northwestward motion continuing through the weekend. Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight or on Friday. Weakening is likely to begin by Saturday and continue through the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Advisory Number 11
    Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 200230 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 110.2W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 150SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 110.2W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 110.4W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.5N 109.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.6N 110.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.5N 111.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.3N 112.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.2N 115.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 24.7N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 24.4N 119.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 110.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 11
    Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 200231 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 A new, solid burst of deep convection developed over Mario's center a little after 2200 UTC and has persisted since that time. As a result, Dvorak intensity estimates went back up to T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate was 50-55 kt. As a result, Mario's initial intensity has been brought back up to 55 kt. Mario is essentially being pulled northeastward, or 045/8 kt, toward the circulation of Tropical Storm Lorena. That being said, all the major global models are now in agreement that Mario will not merge with Lorena, and a strengthening mid-level ridge over northern Mexico should force Mario to turn sharply northward and then northwestward during the next 2 days. This northwestward motion is likely to continue for the rest of the 5-day forecast period, with the cyclone's forward speed slowing down on days 4 and 5 as it moves into a weaker steering pattern. This forecast reasoning is not too different from the previous forecast, although the new NHC track has been nudged a bit to the left of the previous one to account for an overall shift in the guidance envelope. It should be noted that the deterministic ECMWF is an outlier and brings Mario to the Baja California peninsula as a weakening storm, but the bulk of that model's ensemble members favor the ocean-ward tracks shown by the other models. These ensemble solutions help to increase our confidence in the NHC track forecast. UW-CIMSS is analyzing about 5 kt of shear over Mario, and given the expanding convective canopy over the center, this could definitely be realistic. The shear could remain low enough for the next day or so to allow for some strengthening, which is shown by a number of the intensity models, and by extension, the NHC forecast. After 24 hours, increasing easterly shear is likely to lead to gradual weakening, with colder waters leading to a dissipation of all convection by day 4, if not sooner. The NHC forecast therefore now shows Mario degenerating into a remnant low on day 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 17.6N 110.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 18.5N 109.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 19.6N 110.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 20.5N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 21.3N 112.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 23.2N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 24.7N 118.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/0000Z 24.4N 119.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Mario Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
    Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 200231 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 4 66(70) 12(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) 20N 110W 50 X 20(20) 13(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) 20N 110W 64 X 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 34 16 27(43) 5(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) ISLA SOCORRO 50 1 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 7(16) X(16) X(16) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) 1(13) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) $$ FORECASTER BERG ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Mario Graphics
    Tropical Storm Mario 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 02:32:25 GMT

    Tropical Storm Mario 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 03:45:12 GMT ]]>

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Lorena (EP5/EP152019)
    ...LORENA MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED... As of 9:00 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Lorena was located near 22.3, -107.7 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Tropical Storm Lorena

  • Tropical Storm Lorena Public Advisory Number 11
    Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 200240 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...LORENA MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 107.7W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the west coast of Baja California del Sur north of Santa Fe to Puerto Cortes. The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the east coast of Baja California del Sur north of San Evaristo to Loreto, and for the west coast of Baja California del Sur north of Puerto Cortes to Puerto San Andresito. The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for mainland Mexico from Manzanillo to Punta Mita. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Puerto Cortes A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to San Evaristo A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of San Evaristo to Loreto * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Puerto Cortes to Puerto San Andresito A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of this area on Friday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 107.7 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest at a slower forward speed is expected tonight, and this motion should continue through Friday night. A turn toward the northwest is expected on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena will move over the Pacific waters to the southeast of the Baja California peninsula tonight, pass near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Friday, and move along the west coast of the peninsula Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Lorena is forecast to re-gain hurricane strength as it approaches the Baja California peninsula on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula on Friday, with tropical storm conditions beginning by Friday morning. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through the weekend: Coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco: 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Far southern Baja California Sur: 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts around 6 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Advisory Number 11
    Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 200240 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR NORTH OF SANTA FE TO PUERTO CORTES. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO...AND FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR NORTH OF PUERTO CORTES TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO PUNTA MITA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO PUERTO CORTES A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO SAN EVARISTO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO * WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUERTO CORTES TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 107.7W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 60SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 45SE 45SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 107.7W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 107.3W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 22.6N 108.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 23.1N 110.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 23.9N 111.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 24.8N 112.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 27.5N 114.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 29.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 107.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 20/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 11
    Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 200241 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Geostationary satellite data and a recently received SSM/IS overpass suggest that Lorena has gotten a little better organized since the last advisory, with a central dense overcast forming near or over a small mid-level eye seen in the microwave data. However, the various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates indicate that the cyclone has not yet regained hurricane strength. The initial intensity is thus held at 60 kt. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/9. Lorena is located between a mid- to upper-level ridge over northern Mexico and Tropical Storm Mario to the south-southwest, while a large mid- to upper-level trough is northwest of Lorena over the western United States and the northeastern Pacific. The potential for Lorena to interact with Mario is producing a large spread in the guidance and a low confidence track forecast. Much of the track guidance, including the GFS, HWRF, HMON, and the GFS ensemble mean show Lorena turning so sharply westward around the north side of Mario that it passes south of the Baja California peninsula. At the other extreme is the older version of the GFS, which forecasts Lorena to moved northwestward up the Gulf of California due mainly to the influence of the Mexican ridge and the U. S. trough. The ECMWF model forecasts a track generally over the Baja California peninsula, while the UKMET shows a track into the southern Gulf of California followed by a westward turn across southern Baja. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track in forecasting Lorena to pass near the southern end of the Baja California peninsula, then move generally northwestward near the west coast of the peninsula. The new track lies well to the right of the various consensus models, but it lies to the left of the ECWMF and the old GFS model. Adjustments to the forecast track may occur once the amount of influence Mario will have on Lorena become more apparent. The intensity forecast is also very uncertain due to the track forecast uncertainties. The new intensity forecast is based on the track forecast that keeps Lorena over the water near the west coast of the the Baja California peninsula, with the cyclone re-gaining hurricane status before it moves over colder sea surface temperatures and eventually dissipates over the cold water. However there are three alternate scenarios. First, the GFS suggests the possibility that Mario will absorb Lorena and cause it to completely dissipate. Second, the older version of the GFS, with its forecast over the warm waters of the Gulf of California, would could allow Lorena to be stronger than currently forecast. Finally, the ECMWF's track over the Baja California Peninsula would also cause Lorena to weaken faster than currently forecast. The forecast track requires new warnings and watches for portions of Baja California del Sur. Additional warnings and watches may be required for this area on Friday. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will continue over portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next day or so. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Lorena is forecast to re-strengthen into a hurricane and bring hurricane-force winds and heavy rainfall to a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula beginning on Friday. A Hurricane Warning has been issued, and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 22.3N 107.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 22.6N 108.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 23.1N 110.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 23.9N 111.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 24.8N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 27.5N 114.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 29.5N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
    Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 200240 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 3(18) X(18) P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 17(28) X(28) X(28) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 20 70(90) 3(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 2 49(51) 4(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X 20(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) SAN JOSE CABO 34 13 64(77) 4(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) SAN JOSE CABO 50 5 39(44) 3(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) SAN JOSE CABO 64 1 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 34 X 18(18) 22(40) 2(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) LA PAZ 50 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) LA PAZ 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 9(21) 1(22) X(22) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Lorena Graphics
    Tropical Storm Lorena 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 02:42:33 GMT

    Tropical Storm Lorena 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 03:51:44 GMT ]]>


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