Tropical Weather - Hurricanes and Tropical Storms

      364 
ACPN50 PHFO 060513
TWOCP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM HST Mon Oct 05 2026

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rachel, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs
NNNN
      

No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 06 Oct 2026 08:30:06 GMT

      366 
ABPZ20 KNHC 060513
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Oct 5 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Rachel, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. 

South of Southern Mexico (92E):
A broad area of low pressure located offshore of southern Mexico is 
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental 
conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while 
the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. 
Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the 
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs
      

...RACHEL MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Oct 05 the center of Rachel was located near 20.4, -117.9 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Oct 05 2026 884 
WTPZ33 KNHC 060234
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Rachel Advisory Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
800 PM PDT Mon Oct 05 2026
 
...RACHEL MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 117.9W
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rachel was located 
near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 117.9 West. Rachel is moving 
toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and a westward to 
west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fluctuations in strength are possible over the next day or 
so, with gradual weakening expected thereafter.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Rachel will continue to affect the coast
of the Baja California Peninsula for the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Pasch

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2026 050 
WTPZ23 KNHC 060233
TCMEP3
 
HURRICANE RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182026
0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2026
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 117.9W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 100SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 117.9W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 117.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 20.5N 119.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.6N 120.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 21.0N 121.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.5N 123.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.8N 124.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.2N 125.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 22.7N 125.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 24.2N 122.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 117.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KATZ/PASCH

Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Oct 05 2026 877 
WTPZ43 KNHC 060235
TCDEP3
 
Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
800 PM PDT Mon Oct 05 2026
 
The visible satellite presentation for Rachel has become far less
impressive than it was earlier today. The eye of the hurricane has
started to fill in again and the deep convection has become
asymmetric based on the infrared imagery. Using a combination of
the objective and subjective intensity estimates, the initial
intensity has been held at 80 kt for this advisory.

The hurricane is moving westward at 8 kt steered by a high pressure
system to the north-northeast of the cyclone. This area of high 
pressure is expected to keep Rachel moving generally westward to 
west-northwestward for the next several days. However, towards the 
end of the week, that high pressure system should weaken as a mid- 
to upper-level trough amplifies near the west coast of the United 
States. As a result, Rachel is expected to slow down and then turn 
northeastward at the end of the forecast period. The current NHC 
forecast track is similar to the previous track, but adjusted based 
on the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids.

The cyclone is expected to move into a region with drier air and 
significantly cooler sea-surface temperatures. Therefore, the 
current NHC intensity forecast has Rachel progressively weakening in 
a similar trend to the previous forecast. The intensity forecast is 
on the upper end of the guidance envelope, but is very close to the 
HCCA forecast aid. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0300Z 20.4N 117.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 20.5N 119.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 20.6N 120.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 21.0N 121.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 21.5N 123.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  08/1200Z 21.8N 124.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 22.2N 125.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 22.7N 125.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 24.2N 122.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Pasch

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2026 984 
FOPZ13 KNHC 060234
PWSEP3
                                                                    
HURRICANE RACHEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  36                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182026               
0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 120W       34 70  21(91)   1(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
20N 120W       50  2  33(35)   2(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
20N 120W       64  X  14(14)   2(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
25N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)
 
25N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   4(15)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KATZ/PASCH

 

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Oct 2026 03:22:15 GMT

      

      000
ABNT20 KNHC 060507
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92):
A trough of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of America is 
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although 
environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for 
development, a tropical depression is likely to form within the next 
couple of days. The system is expected to drift east-northeastward 
through the middle portion of the week before turning northward. It 
is too early to determine specific impacts to the northern Gulf 
Coast, but interests there should closely monitor the progress of 
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs
      

No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 06 Oct 2026 08:30:06 GMT