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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean



NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
abnt20 knhc 261747
twoat 

tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
200 pm edt mon sep 26 2022

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico:

active systems:
the national hurricane center is issuing advisories on hurricane 
ian, located over the northwestern caribbean sea.

central tropical atlantic:
shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little in organization 
today associated with an area of low pressure located several 
hundred miles west of the cabo verde islands. despite the proximity 
of nearby dry air, upper-level winds appear generally conducive 
for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form during the next couple of days as the system meanders over the 
central tropical atlantic. by the end of this week, upper-level 
winds are forecast to become less favorable for development as the 
system begins to move slowly north-northwestward.
* formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
forecaster papin

Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane Ian (AT4/AL092022)
    ...IAN CONTINUES TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY... ...CONDITIONS IN WESTERN CUBA TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS EXPECTED... As of 5:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 the center of Ian was located near 20.3, -83.2 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Hurricane Ian

  • Hurricane Ian Public Advisory Number 15
    Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022 000 WTNT34 KNHC 262100 CCA TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 15...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022 Corrected header and next advisory time ...IAN CONTINUES TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY... ...CONDITIONS IN WESTERN CUBA TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 83.2W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Dry Tortugas. A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for Anclote River southward to Flamingo, including Tampa Bay. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for Altamaha Sound to the Flagler/Volusia County Line, including the St. Johns River. The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning from Englewood southward to Flamingo. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Bonita Beach to Englewood. The Hurricane Watch from Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay, has been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Anclote River to the Suwannee River. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, and from Jupiter Inlet to Altamaha Sound. The government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Grand Cayman and the Tropical Storm Watch for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa * Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay * Dry Tortugas A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Anclote River southward to Flamingo * Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas * Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West * Flamingo to Englewood A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West * Dry Tortugas * Florida Bay * Aucilla River to Anclote River * Altamaha Sound to Flagler/Volusia County Line * Saint Johns River A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Anclote River to the Suwannee River * Bonita Beach to Englewood A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge * Lake Okeechobee * North of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass * Jupiter Inlet to Altamaha Sound A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in central Cuba, the remainder of the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 83.2 West. Ian is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north with a slightly slower forward speed is expected on Tuesday. A turn toward the north-northeast with a further reduction in forward speed is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move near or over western Cuba tonight and early Tuesday. Ian will then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, pass west of the Florida Keys late Tuesday, and approach the west coast of Florida on Wednesday into Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Ian is forecast to become a major hurricane tonight or early Tuesday when it is near western Cuba and remain a major hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... *Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, FL including Tampa Bay...5-10 ft *Suwannee River to Anclote River...5-8 ft *Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...5-8 ft *Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor... 4-7 ft *Bonita Beach, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...3-5 ft *Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound including St. Johns River...2-4 ft *East Cape Sable, FL to Card Sound Bridge, FL including Florida Bay...2-4 ft *Aucilla River to Suwannee River...2-4 ft *Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft *Indian Pass, FL to Aucilla River...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area tonight and early Tuesday. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected by this evening. Destructive winds are possible where the core of Ian moves across western Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in Cuba tonight and Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are expected along the west coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possibly beginning by Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area by Tuesday evening. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Wednesday into early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the lower Florida Keys and are possible in the watch area in the middle Florida Keys on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through Thursday: Jamaica: An additional 1 to 3 inches, with local maximum of 5 inches, especially along the south coastal region. Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches. Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches. These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of higher terrain over western Cuba. Florida Keys: 4 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches Coastal Southwest and Southeast Florida: 4 to 6 inches with local maxima up to 10 inches Central West Florida: 6 to 12 inches, with local maxima up to 20 inches. Northeast Florida: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 12 inches. Remainder of the Central Florida Peninsula: 4 to 8 inches. Heavy rainfall is expected to affect the Southeast U.S. Friday and Saturday. Widespread considerable flash and urban flooding, and prolonged significant river flooding impacts are likely mid-to-late week across central and northern Florida, southern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina. Flash and urban flooding impacts are also possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula through mid week. Limited flooding impacts and rises on area streams and rivers are also possible over portions of the Southeast mid-to-late week. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible late tonight and Tuesday across the Florida Keys and the southern/central Florida Peninsula. SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Swells will spread northwestward to the southwestern coast of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico tonight. Swells are expected to begin affecting the Florida Keys Tuesday and spread northward along the west coast of Florida through Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart ]]>
  • Hurricane Ian Forecast Advisory Number 15
    Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 26 2022 000 WTNT24 KNHC 262055 TCMAT4 HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022 2100 UTC MON SEP 26 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ANCLOTE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY. A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE...INCLUDING THE ST. JOHNS RIVER. A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AUCILLA RIVER TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM ENGLEWOOD SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD. THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM ENGLEWOOD TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ANCLOTE RIVER TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS...AND FROM JUPITER INLET TO ALTAMAHA SOUND. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND CAYMAN AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA * ENGLEWOOD TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY * DRY TORTUGAS A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANCLOTE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO * TAMPA BAY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS * LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST * FLAMINGO TO ENGLEWOOD A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST * DRY TORTUGAS * FLORIDA BAY * ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE * SAINT JOHNS RIVER * AUCILLA RIVER TO ANCLOTE RIVER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF ANCLOTE RIVER TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER * BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE CHANNEL 5 BRIDGE * LAKE OKEECHOBEE * NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS * JUPITER INLET TO ALTAMAHA SOUND A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN CENTRAL CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 83.2W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 83.2W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 83.0W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.7N 83.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 23.6N 84.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 25.3N 83.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.7N 83.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 35SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.5N 83.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 130SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.1N 82.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 130SE 120SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 30.1N 82.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 33.5N 82.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 83.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART ]]>
  • Hurricane Ian Forecast Discussion Number 15
    Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022 000 WTNT44 KNHC 262102 CCA TCDAT4 Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 15...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022 Corrected header Ian continues to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The last report from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters around 1630 UTC found 700-mb flight-level winds of 79 kt. The inner core appears better organized, and the eyewall structure has greatly improved in radar imagery from the Cayman Islands. The 18 UTC satellite classifications from SAB and TAFB were a consensus T4.5/77 kt, but the continued improvement in satellite structure warrants raising the initial intensity to 85 kt for this advisory. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions remain very favorable for additional intensification during the next 24 h or so, as Ian moves over the very warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico while the shear remains quite low. The NHC intensity forecast calls for Ian to become a major hurricane before it reaches western Cuba early Tuesday. It is then forecast to reach its peak intensity over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in 36 h. After that, southwesterly shear in association with a deep-layer trough over the eastern U.S. is forecast to significantly increase over the hurricane on Wednesday and Thursday, which will likely disrupt the vertical structure and import drier air into its circulation. Despite these less favorable conditions, Ian is still forecast to remain at or near major hurricane strength as it passes near the west-central coast of Florida on Wednesday and Thursday. The NHC intensity forecast agrees well with the latest IVCN and HCCA aids. Ian has made an expected turn toward the north-northwest, and its initial motion is 330/11 kt. The hurricane will move north-northwestward to northward over the next day or so as it is steered by a mid-level ridge to the east. A turn to the north-northeast with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Wednesday and Thursday as the center of Ian moves near the west coast of Florida. The slower forward motion is likely to prolong the storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts, especially along the west coast of Florida. The latest track guidance has come into better agreement on this scenario, although it is noted that small deviations to the shore-parallel track could have large implications on the impacts at particular locations along the west coast of Florida. The NHC track forecast has again been adjusted slightly eastward at 48-72 h, which follows the latest trends in the global model guidance and lies near but just west of the multi-model consensus aids. Based on the latest forecast and timing of expected impacts, Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings have been issued along the west coast of Florida. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, flash floods and possible mudslides are expected in portions of western Cuba beginning this evening and continuing into Tuesday. Devastating wind damage is possible where the core of Ian moves across western Cuba. Efforts to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge along much of the Florida west coast where a storm surge warning has been issued, with the highest risk from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay region. Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area in west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning with tropical storm conditions expected by late Tuesday. 4. Heavy rainfall will increase across the Florida Keys and south Florida Tuesday, spreading to central and northern Florida Wednesday and Thursday, potentially causing flash, urban and small stream flooding. Significant prolonged river flooding is likely across central Florida. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 20.3N 83.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 21.7N 83.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 23.6N 84.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 25.3N 83.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 26.7N 83.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 29/0600Z 27.5N 83.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 28.1N 82.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 30.1N 82.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 01/1800Z 33.5N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Reinhart ]]>
  • Hurricane Ian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
    Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 26 2022 000 FONT14 KNHC 262056 PWSAT4 HURRICANE IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022 2100 UTC MON SEP 26 2022 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS ...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 8(17) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 7(17) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 10(29) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 17(24) 11(35) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 9(21) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 15(24) 9(33) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 21(29) 19(48) 7(55) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 4(20) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 15(34) 7(41) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 23(33) 19(52) 6(58) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 11(18) 4(22) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 20(27) 17(44) 6(50) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 3(17) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 30(45) 14(59) 4(63) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 8(26) 2(28) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 26(40) 12(52) 4(56) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 7(18) 2(20) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) 31(57) 10(67) 2(69) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 18(25) 6(31) 2(33) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 2(14) X(14) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) 27(53) 8(61) 2(63) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 3(24) 1(25) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 26(33) 21(54) 7(61) 2(63) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 5(15) 1(16) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 25(33) 22(55) 6(61) 3(64) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 4(15) 1(16) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 23(33) 17(50) 6(56) 2(58) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) X(12) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 17(30) 13(43) 5(48) X(48) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 4( 4) 11(15) 14(29) 11(40) 4(44) X(44) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MIAMI FL 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 10(18) 11(29) 3(32) X(32) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 9(18) 9(27) 4(31) X(31) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MARATHON FL 34 3 13(16) 23(39) 7(46) 5(51) 2(53) X(53) MARATHON FL 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KEY WEST FL 34 3 40(43) 21(64) 5(69) 3(72) 1(73) X(73) KEY WEST FL 50 X 5( 5) 11(16) 2(18) 1(19) 1(20) X(20) KEY WEST FL 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NAPLES FL 34 1 9(10) 47(57) 21(78) 5(83) 1(84) 1(85) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) 12(12) 20(32) 5(37) 1(38) 1(39) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 3(15) 1(16) X(16) FT MYERS FL 34 X 4( 4) 28(32) 32(64) 8(72) 3(75) 1(76) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 9(34) 1(35) X(35) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) 1(17) X(17) VENICE FL 34 X 6( 6) 47(53) 34(87) 6(93) 2(95) X(95) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 12(12) 44(56) 10(66) 3(69) 1(70) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 10(42) 1(43) 1(44) TAMPA FL 34 X 3( 3) 23(26) 46(72) 14(86) 4(90) 2(92) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 22(56) 4(60) 1(61) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 19(33) 3(36) X(36) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 35(44) 24(68) 8(76) 3(79) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 21(34) 9(43) 2(45) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 4(23) 1(24) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 17(23) 12(35) 3(38) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 20(28) 12(40) 4(44) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 2(14) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 21(39) 8(47) 3(50) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) 2(15) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 23(30) 21(51) 7(58) 1(59) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 4(19) 2(21) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 17(26) 7(33) 2(35) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 5(14) 2(16) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 4(14) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 11(19) 4(23) 1(24) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) COZUMEL MX 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 9(19) 5(24) 1(25) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 79 5(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) 1(86) X(86) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 8 6(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 53 30(83) 2(85) 1(86) X(86) 1(87) X(87) HAVANA 50 3 18(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) 1(25) X(25) HAVANA 64 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 95 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) ISLE OF PINES 50 37 3(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) ISLE OF PINES 64 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CIENFUEGOS 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GRAND CAYMAN 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER REINHART ]]>
  • Hurricane Ian Graphics
    Hurricane Ian 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Sep 2022 20:58:51 GMT

    Hurricane Ian 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Sep 2022 21:24:14 GMT ]]>
  • Hurricane Ian Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
    Hurricane Ian Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics Image
    Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 26 Sep 2022 16:37:41 GMT ]]>
  • Hurricane Ian Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
    Hurricane Ian Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
    Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 26 Sep 2022 16:48:33 GMT ]]>
  • Hurricane Ian Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
    Hurricane Ian Link to Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
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Local Statement for Jacksonville, FL
issued at  507 pm edt mon sep 26 2022

Local Statement for Tampa Bay Area, FL
issued at  510 pm edt mon sep 26 2022

Local Statement for Miami, FL
issued at  510 pm edt mon sep 26 2022

Local Statement for Key West, FL
issued at  513 pm edt mon sep 26 2022

Local Statement for Melbourne, FL
issued at  516 pm edt mon sep 26 2022


Eastern Pacific



NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

 


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
abpz20 knhc 261752
twoep 

tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
1100 am pdt mon sep 26 2022

for the eastern north pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

south of the southern coast of mexico:
an area of low pressure is forecast to develop south of the southern 
coast of mexico in a couple of days.  environmental conditions are 
forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical 
depression could form by the end of this week while the system moves 
generally westward to west-northwestward.
* formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
forecaster papin


There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
no tropical cyclones as of mon, 26 sep 2022 21:24:57 gmt


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