000
abnt20 knhc 280513
twoat 

tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
200 am edt thu sep 28 2023

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico:

active systems:
the national hurricane center is issuing advisories on tropical 
storm philippe, located several hundred miles east of the northern 
leeward islands.

central tropical atlantic (al91):
showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization in 
association with an area of low pressure located roughly halfway 
between the cabo verde islands and the lesser antilles. 
environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for 
development, as long as this system remains far enough removed from 
tropical storm philippe to its west. a tropical depression or storm 
is expected to form in the next day or so while the system moves 
northwestward across the central tropical atlantic. additional 
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in 
high seas forecasts issued by the national weather service. 
* formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
high seas forecasts issued by the national weather service
can be found under awips header nfdhsfat1, wmo header fznt01 
kwbc, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/nfdhsfat1.php

$$
forecaster bucci

Tropical Storm Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Storm Philippe (AT2/AL172023)
  ...PHILIPPE EXPECTED TO DRIFT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... ...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 28 the center of Philippe was located near 18.8, -54.6 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Philippe

• Tropical Storm Philippe Public Advisory Number 20
  Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 28 2023 000 WTNT32 KNHC 280900 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 500 AM AST Thu Sep 28 2023 ...PHILIPPE EXPECTED TO DRIFT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... ...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 54.6W ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 54.6 West. Philippe is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow west-northwestward to westward motion is forecast during the next day or so, followed by a slower westward to west-southwestward motion by this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, with slow weakening forecast this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Philippe may produce 1 to 3 inches of rain across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and portions of Puerto Rico this weekend and into early next week. Heavy rainfall from Philippe may produce isolated urban and small stream flooding impacts. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Bucci ]]>
• Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Advisory Number 20
  Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 28 2023 000 WTNT22 KNHC 280900 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023 0900 UTC THU SEP 28 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 54.6W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 120SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 54.6W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 54.4W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.1N 55.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.3N 56.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 19.2N 56.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.9N 57.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 10NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.5N 57.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 18.0N 58.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 18.2N 59.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 19.0N 60.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 54.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI ]]>
• Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Discussion Number 20
  Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 28 2023 684 WTNT42 KNHC 280900 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 500 AM AST Thu Sep 28 2023 Philippe remains a disorganized, sheared storm. Deep convection has continued through the night to the southeast of the estimated low-level center. Imagery from a 0525 UTC satellite microwave pass showed a decent curved band associated with this convection in the 89 GHz channel. Unfortunately, ASCAT missed the storm entirely. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory, closest to the TAFB Dvorak estimate. There is still low confidence in Philippe's track forecast. As stated in previous advisories, the future location of the storm is closely linked to its structure and intensity. Should Philippe remain a weaker, shallower cyclone, it is more likely to follow the low-level westerly to southwesterly flow. This advisory favors that scenario and shows the storm slowly drifting generally westward to southwestward through day 4. By day 5, global models are suggesting a trough to the north will lift Philippe or its remnants northwestward. A complicating factor to this track forecast is the proximity of an area of disturbed weather to the east of the cyclone. Some models are still showing a binary interaction between the two systems, which will largely depend on the strength of each. Significant changes have been made to the most recent track forecast, that are largely related to a slower westward progression of Philippe. Still, this forecast is a blend of the previous advisory and the latest model guidance. Further adjustments may be required in subsequent advisories. Philippe is in an environment with moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear and lower, upshear, mid-level relative humidities. These conditions are likely to inhibit intensification in the near-term time frame. In about 48 h, global models predict the vertical wind shear to increase and likely cause Philippe to gradually weaken through the forecast period. However, there remains higher-than-average uncertainty in the intensity forecast. The latest NHC forecast still calls for Philippe to become a remnant low by day 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 18.8N 54.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 19.1N 55.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 19.3N 56.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 19.2N 56.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 18.9N 57.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 30/1800Z 18.5N 57.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 18.0N 58.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 18.2N 59.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/0600Z 19.0N 60.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci ]]>
• Tropical Storm Philippe Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
  Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 28 2023 548 FONT12 KNHC 280900 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023 0900 UTC THU SEP 28 2023 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI ]]>
• Tropical Storm Philippe Graphics
  
  5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 28 Sep 2023 09:03:11 GMT
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 28 Sep 2023 09:22:23 GMT ]]>

000
abpz20 knhc 280514
twoep 

tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
1100 pm pdt wed sep 27 2023

for the eastern north pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

southwestern east pacific:
a tropical wave continues to produce an area of disorganized showers 
and thunderstorms well southwest of the southern tip of the baja 
california peninsula. some development of this system remains 
possible over the next day or two while it moves generally westward 
at about 15 mph. by late friday, upper-level winds are forecast to 
become unfavorable for further development before the system moves 
into the central pacific basin.
* formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
forecaster bucci

no tropical cyclones as of thu, 28 sep 2023 09:22:30 gmt