National Weather Service Area Forecast Discussion for Long Beach, WA USA

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland, OR or
952 pm pst tue feb 17 2026

.updated aviation discussion...

.synopsis...a deep, upper level trough over the northeast
pacific will continue to maintain cooler temperatures and
scattered to widespread rain/snow showers across the forecast
area through at least the latter part of the week. colder air
looks to maintain daytime temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees f
cooler than normal, while also lowering snow levels towards
500-1000 ft each night/morning. given the showery nature of the
precipitation, there is a 40-60% chance for snow flurries or
"conversational snow" to be observed down to the valley floor
through at least late thursday morning. there is the potential
(45-60% chance) for 1 to 2 inches, or more of snowfall occurring
below 500-1000 ft somewhere in nw oregon/sw washington,
wednesday evening into thursday morning. shower activity is
expected to wane at the end of the week as high pressure returns
briefly to the region. as high pressure builds, snow levels are
expected to climb back towards over 3000 ft by sunday as a
warmer frontal system develops offshore.

&&

.discussion...now through monday...current radar imagery this
afternoon shows scattered showers across the forecast area.
these showers are expected to continue to ease through wednesday
morning as a low pressure near the south washington coast
weakens. any showers through tonight will have the potential to
also produce some small hail/graupel. any hail/graupel would be
associated with a shower and quickly melt/dissipate after the
associated shower leaves the area. most inland locations are
likely to remain dry tonight though a few light rain/snow
showers will be possible through early wednesday morning. with
clearing and relatively drier conditions tonight, expect
overnight lows to fall below freezing, while a few rural
locations could see temperatures fall into the mid to upper 20s.
this could lead to icy roads and slick surfaces as any
lingering moisture would likely freeze by early wednesday
morning.

as wednesday evening approaches we move into the more active
weather for the week. while there is still a lot of uncertainty
as to when and where snow will fall, we have moderate confidence
(45-60% chance) that somewhere along the i-5 corridor will see
at least 1 to 2 inches of snowfall. the gefs, ecmwf and
canadian models and their ensembles are maintaining 850 mb
temperatures of -5 to -7 degrees c. the fact that models
continue to be consistent with the 850 mb temperatures has
helped to bolster our overall confidence in the fact that snow
will accumulate somewhere along the i-5 corridor. however, the
timing and track of the low and associated frontal boundary still
remains in flux. now, there is some good news as the potential
low tracks have narrowed slightly. still, we are looking at
three options when it comes to the higher probability tracks.
track one (20% chance), looks to move inland around astoria, or
and push southeastward towards kelso/longview, wa and the
portland/vancouver area. track two (40% chance), looks to come
in around newport to lincoln city, or. the path for this
solution, has a "swish and flick" look as the low looks to
"swish" northeastward towards portland/vancouver before
"flicking" eastward towards mt. hood, or. track three (20%
chance), looks to come onshore around florence, or and head
southeast towards medford, or. now, for those of you counting up
the probabilities of each track at home, track one is 20%,
track 2 is 40% and track 3 at 20%. you might be asking about the
remaining 20% chance and well, that can all be gathered into an
option, that covers outlier runs of the gefs, ecmwf and
canadian models. these outlier runs have the low coming onshore
anywhere from the olympic peninsula all the way down to
california. while these outlier runs are not likely on their
own, there is still a chance, albeit a small one, that they
could verify. now, onto the other variable that has somewhat
come into focus: precipitation start time. assuming a band of
snow does develop (~50% chance), snow would most likely (50%
chance) start between 7pm and 9pm on wednesday. the earliest
start time would be around 5pm wednesday (10% chance) and the
latest possible start time would be around 10pm wednesday to
12am thursday (10% chance). it is not clear yet exactly when the
snow would end, but it appears snow would most likely end by
12pm thursday as the low pressure system shifts eastward towards
the cascade crest. note, this timing is subject to change with
future updates.

while, we have a lot of things that we don`t know, we are very
confident (85-90% chance) that freezing rain and/or very gusty
winds will not occur with this system, no matter the track the
low takes.

also, no matter the track, snow accumulations for the cascades
and coast ranges look to be on track as hazardous travel conditions
are expected to continue through the work week. we are expecting
additional snow accumulations of 2 to 7 inches through wednesday
night and another 1 to 3 inches of snow thursday morning
through thursday night for the foothills of the northern and
central oregon cascades, north and central coast range mountains
of oregon, willapa hills, and south washington cascade
foothills. as for the south washington cascades and the northern
and central cascades of oregon, expect additional snow
accumulations of 4 to 9 inches through wednesday night and
another 3 to 6 inches of snow thursday morning through thursday
night.

as we move into thursday, temperatures are expected to warm
back into the low to mid 40s, so if any snow does fall and
accumulates, it would most likely melt. temperatures thursday
night into friday morning will likely cool again into the upper
20s to lower 30s. but shower activity is expected to wane, and
any precipitation that does fall would be very light, resulting
in little to no accumulation. looking towards friday and into
the weekend, wpc 500 mb cluster analysis shows some agreement
that a weak high pressure ridge will build over the region
towards the latter part of the week and into the weekend. as
this ridge builds over the area, 850 mb temps are expected to
warm towards -3 to 0 degrees c by saturday and towards 2 to 4
degrees c by sunday. this will result in snow levels rising
towards 2500-3500 ft by saturday and to 3500-4500 ft on sunday.
sunday and monday, in addition to the warming pattern mentioned
above, models and their ensembles also bring precipitation back
into the forecast. which means that rain is likely to return
for areas below 5000 ft. however, there is still high uncertainty
in regards to precipitation amounts and location of the heaviest
rainfall. models bring precipitation all along the western us
coast sunday into monday, with the highest probabilities of
enhanced rainfall currently pointed at portions of southern
oregon and california. /42

&&


.aviation...conditions late this evening are a mix of vfr to mvfr
as isolated to scattered showers continue to slowly meander
through the region. models do show an up-tick in activity west to
east around 13-17z and with overnight temperatures near freezing
conditions likely support a rain/snow mix or wet snow. within any
snow showers vis may temporarily drop to ifr. not anticipating
any accumulation outside a slush-up in the grass at all airport
terminals through the morning hours.

the rest of wednesday will be transitions period as a slightly
stronger cold frontal system nears the region. while likely
holding off until after ~03z thu, we`ll likely see showers ramp
up ahead of the main frontal band. at the very end of the taf
period (03-06z) chances for rain/snow mix showers increase
significantly likely switching to wet snow wednesday night. there
are increasing probabilities for slushy accumulation, especially
at inland taf sites, but confidence is low regarding the exact
timing/placement.

kpdx and approaches...mvfr conditions are in place as of ~05z
this evening with largely a persistence forecast overnight
although there is a 20-25% chance for ifr cigs between 12-16z.
main concern over the next 24 hours remains precipitation type,
and the inconsistency in cig heights. cannot rule out a
rain/snow mix or wet snow overnight into wednesday morning then
again after ~03z thursday. -99

&&

.marine...
surface low pressure will linger near the south
washington coast today, maintaining westerly breezes across the
waters. wind speeds expected to be 20 kt or less though gusty
winds will be possible with any passing shower. seas in general
have been in the 10-14 ft at 13 second range but have slowly begun
to ease within the inner waters. this will be the trend through
wednesday afternoon as they begin to subside. the overall trend is
the combined seas remaining below 10 ft through friday.

looking into the future, a stronger system is on deck for the
weekend with the potential for stronger southerly winds. easily
will see small craft advisory level winds on saturday, but there
is around a 40-50% chance of gales in the outer waters of pzz273.
at that time, the background swell will be weaker and combined
seas will be driven by the wind waves. -27

&&

.pqr watches/warnings/advisories...
or...winter weather advisory until 4 am pst friday for orz106-107-
     123>128.
wa...winter weather advisory until 4 am pst friday for waz203-208-
     211.
pz...small craft advisory until 4 am pst wednesday for pzz210.
     small craft advisory until 10 am pst wednesday for pzz251>253.
     small craft advisory until 4 pm pst wednesday for pzz271>273.
&&

$$

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