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National Weather Service Area Forecast Discussion for Long Beach, WA USA

fxus66 kpqr 080948

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland, OR or
245 am pdt wed jul 8 2020

.synopsis...morning clouds will give way to sunny skies and somewhat
warmer weather today. but, another weak front will push across the
region late tonight into thursday, with return of clouds and a few
showers. high pressure builds for friday, with drier and warmer for
friday and saturday. another weak front arrives sunday, with clouds
and showers again. but, longer range looks to bring warmer weather
for next week, with highs inland back into the 80s.

.short through friday...upper trough is now well east of
the region. but, still have moderate onshore flow across the region,
which will maintain widespread clouds through late morning. air mass
will gradually warm a bit, with clouds breaking up and skies becoming
partly to mostly sunny this afternoon. with more sunshine, will see
temperatures up about 2 to 5 deg today over what saw on tuesday.

but, another weak front will push across the region later tonight and
thursday. will see increasing chance of showers, mainly across
western washington and far northwest oregon thu am. not all that
impressive of a front, with total rainfall generally only a few
hundredths, though few spots in the willapa hills and north coast
range and the south washington cascades could get 0.10 to 0.20 inch.
during the day. do not think will get much of any moisture to south,
primarily east and south of salem. will trend forecasts as such. will
be a tad cooler, thanks to clouds persisting longer into the
afternoon with the enhanced onshore flow.

high pressure builds across the region on friday, with morning clouds
giving way to plenty of sunshine. still have northwesterly onshore
flow, but this flow much weaker that have seen for past few days. so,
with more sunshine, and low to mid-level flow more north to
northwesterly, should get inland temperatures into the lower 80,
which is where inland areas should be for early july. still mild
along the coast, with mid to upper 60s.             /rockey.

.long term...friday night through tuesday...the deterministic
models have slowed the timing of precipitation with a front expected
for saturday, and suggests that the rain will hold off until
saturday night or sunday. the models also indicate that the front
will weaken as it nears, which could limit the qpf potential. the
ensemble runs still show the possibility for rain across sw
washington and extreme nw oregon late saturday morning and
afternoon, and have kept the chance pops produced by the nbm for
these areas. expect the forecast timing of this front to continue to
slow and weaken with the next few model cycles. besides an increase
of clouds, and possible light rain, this front will also result in a
slight drop in temperatures.

models hint that a more zonal weather pattern will set up early next
week for drier and warmer conditions. ~tj


.aviation...onshore flow continues through the early morning
hours, which will sustain a solid marine layer across the
forecast area. a mixture of ifr/mvfr cigs will persist along the
coast this morning. inland locations will see the predominately
vfr cigs lower to a mixture of low end vfr/high end mvfr after
10z to 12z wednesday. cigs expected to settle in around 2800 to
4000 feet throughout the willamette valley.

a weak surface ridge developing across the area today should
help cigs improve towards vfr after 18z wednesday and persist
through the wednesday evening hours.

kpdx and approaches...vfr cigs and north-northwesterly winds
will persist through wednesday morning. expect cigs to settle
around 2800 to 3500 feet after 12z wednesday, with predominately
vfr cigs returning after 18z wednesday. /42


.marine...quiet conditions persist over the waters through the
weekend. wind speeds generally 15 kt or less. longer range
models suggest a more typical summer pattern developing around
the middle of next week, with north wind gusts to 20 kt possible
south of cascade head.

seas will hover in the 3 to 5 ft range through the weekend, with
a dominate swell from the west/northwest along with a dominate
period of 7 to 10 seconds. /42


.pqr watches/warnings/advisories...


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