National Weather Service Area Forecast Discussion for Long Beach, WA USA

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland, OR
348 am pst tue nov 10 2026

.synopsis...after a storm system clips the area today, expect
drier weather wednesday and thursday before another storm system
brings widespread rain and breezy conditions to the area friday
into the weekend. sneaker waves will be a threat through the
week with another round of high surf conditions appearing
increasingly likely saturday.

&&

.discussion...now through monday...water vapor satellite
imagery early tuesday morning depicts a large swatch of moisture
approaching the northern pacnw. this is the next atmospheric
river slated to impact the region as the associated frontal
system will slowly approach the wa and far northern or coast
today through wednesday. some light scattered showers are
possible early this morning across all of nw or and sw wa before
upper level ridging begins building east of the cascades,
limiting the main bulk of the precipitation to locations north
of us-20 this morning then steadily moving north into
washington through the afternoon.  a rather sharp gradient in
rainfall totals on tuesday is expected from south to north, with
little to no rain south of us-20, less than 0.2 inch for the
interior lowlands south of longview and the coast south of
tillamook, 0.25-0.5 inches for the sw wa cascades and the coast
from tillamook to the state line, and 0.5-1 inch for pacific
county. heavier rain associated with this atmospheric river is
expected over the olympic peninsula. expect another round of
breezy southerly winds with gusts as high as 30-40 mph along the
coast north of tillamook and sw wa west of i-5 through this
evening.

upper-level ridging will reach its peak amplitude on wednesday,
supporting dry and unseasonably warm temperatures across
interior valleys with high temperatures forecast in the low to
mid 60s. daily record high temperatures look to remain out of
reach for most locations, though the record values of 64f at
portland (pdx) and hillsboro (hio) set in 1989 and 66f at
vancouver (vuo) set in 1904, 1907, and 1930 may be in jeopardy.
however, showers will continue in pacific county and along the
coast north of tillamook. thursday is expected to be a
transition day as upper ridging begins shifting east as upper
troughing begins pushing into the northeastern pacific. daytime
temperatures will lower a few degrees, though will still be
unseasonably warm in the low 60s across interior valleys. mostly
dry weather is expected through the day except for a 20-40%
chance of showers along the coast, mainly due to uncertainty on
specific timing of the rain from the next approaching trough.

there is high confidence that an upper-level low pressure system
will become situated over the northeast pacific west of canada
from late thursday/friday into the weekend, returning troughing
to the pacific northwest. multiple surface frontal systems are
expected to move through the region during this time, bringing
repeated chances for widespread rain and breezy winds. there is
still uncertainty with specific rainfall amounts and peak wind
gusts; however, we can say for certain that it will be wet. this
is shaping up to be another atmospheric river event as long-
range ensembles indicate a 70-90% chance for vapor transport to
exceed 500 kg/(ms) at the leading edge of this trough on friday
somewhere along the oregon coast with similar probabilities of
vapor transport values remaining above 250 kg/(ms) into sunday.
increasingly saturated soils from multiple weather systems could
allow for greater runoff into area rivers, meaning at least
isolated flooding cannot be ruled out. people should also clear
gutters and storm drains of any leaves or debris to prevent
urban flooding. across the cascades, it appears that this system
will be warm enough to keep snow levels between 5500-6500 feet,
keeping the passes snow-free. however, cascade peaks could see a
few inches of snow combined between friday night and saturday
night, with even more over the volcanoes.

when it comes to winds, there is a 20-40% chance for maximum
wind gusts exceeding 55 mph along the coast friday and
saturday, with the highest chances on friday. wind gusts of this
magnitude could result in scattered or widespread power outages
or tree damage. along the i-5 corridor, there is a 15-30%
chance for maximum wind gusts exceeding 40 mph, which could
result in isolated power outages or tree damage. to prepare,
make sure to secure loose outdoor items. -03/10

&&

.aviation...through 12z wednesday...as of 1130z tue, widespread
mvfr cigs inland are forecast to improve to vfr by 16-19z tue.
along the coast, ifr cigs south of ktmk forecast to improve to
mvfr by 18-21z tue with a 40-60% chance of improving to vfr after
21-23z tue. north of ktmk, mvfr conditions expected through the
taf period due to on and off showers, some heavy at times. there
is a 10-20% chance for thunderstorms near the sw washington coast
through 18z tue. elsewhere, scattered showers continue this
morning, dissipating from south to north by 18-21z tue. inland
winds from the south 7-10 kts. gusty southerly winds along the
coast with gusts up to 25-30 kts.

kpdx and approaches...mvfr cigs forecast to improve to vfr by
17-19z tue with scattered showers through 18-21z. winds southeast
to southerly around 8-10 kts. -03

&&

.marine...small craft conditions continue across the waters
this morning in the wake of a frontal system. winds will
increase this morning across the waters and remain elevated
through wednesday as this system moves across the waters. there
is a 60-90+% chance for gales north of cape falcon where a gale
warning remains in effect from late this morning through wednesday
afternoon. south of cape falcon, there`s only a 10-40% chance of
gale force gusts through this evening, so have not opted for a
gale warning. this evening through wednesday, chances of gales
increase between cape falcon and cascade head to 40-70%, so have
kept the gale watch in place for zones pzz253 and pzz273 from this
evening through wednesday. a building west swell will increase
seas to 14-19 ft around 14 seconds today into wednesday. a
hazardous seas warning is in effect south of cape falcon beginning
1 pm today through wednesday afternoon.

a stronger frontal system will increase winds and seas on friday.
with a 40-60% chance for storm force winds on friday and a 60-80%
chance of 20+ ft seas on saturday. -03

&&

.beach hazards...a moderate to high sneaker wave threat continues
along the coast through this week as a westerly swell of 10-12 ft
at 13-15 seconds increases to 14-16 ft midweek. this will result
in waves running up significantly farther on a beach than normal,
including over rocks and jetties. sneaker waves can suddenly
knock people off of their feet and quickly pull them into the
frigid ocean which may lead to serious injury or drowning.

there is also the potential for tidal overflow flooding tuesday
and wednesday as the tide plus anomaly are forecasted between 10
and 11 ft (mllw). this could lead to further water inundation and
coastal erosion.

additionally, confidence is increasing that a stronger westerly
swell of 20-24 ft with a dominant period at 16-18 seconds will
impact the coast on saturday for dangerous surf conditions.
destructive waves may wash over beaches, jetties, and other
structures unexpectedly.

extreme caution should be used if you plan to visit beaches
this week. the large wave runup may dislodge logs on area beaches
and result in them rolling up and down area beaches, which have
historically killed or seriously injured unsuspecting people, so
there will be much more of a threat than just getting wet from a
rogue wave. -03

&&

.pqr watches/warnings/advisories...

or...none.
wa...none.
pz...small craft advisory until 10 am pst this morning for pzz210-251-
     271.

     gale warning from 10 am this morning to 4 pm pst wednesday for
     pzz210-251-271.

     small craft advisory until 1 pm pst this afternoon for pzz252-
     253-272-273.

     hazardous seas warning from 1 pm this afternoon to 7 pm pst this
     evening for pzz252-272.

     gale watch from this evening through wednesday afternoon for
     pzz252-272.

     hazardous seas warning from 1 pm this afternoon to 4 pm pst
     wednesday for pzz253-273.
&&

$$

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