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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean



NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
abnt20 knhc 221732
twoat 

tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
200 pm edt wed oct 22 2014

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico:

the national hurricane center is issuing advisories on tropical
depression nine, located over the eastern bay of campeche.

a large non-tropical low, located over the northeastern atlantic
ocean a few hundred miles south of the western azores, continues to
produce disorganized showers. environmental conditions are forecast
to become less conducive for development by thursday while the low
meanders. additional information on this system can be found in high
seas forecasts issued by meteo france.
* formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&

public advisories on tropical depression nine are issued under wmo
header wtnt34 knhc and under awips header miatcpat4.
forecast/advisories on tropical depression nine are issued under wmo
header wtnt24 knhc and under awips header miatcmat4.

high seas forecasts issued by meteo france can be found under wmo
header fqnt50 lfpw.

$$
forecaster kimberlain


Tropical Depression Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Depression NINE (AT4/AL092014)
    ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAILED TO STRENGTHEN SO FAR... As of 4:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 the center of NINE was located near 19.2, -91.7 with movement ESE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression NINE

  • Tropical Depression NINE Public Advisory Number 4
    Issued at 400 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 222031 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 400 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAILED TO STRENGTHEN SO FAR... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 91.7W ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CELESTUN TO FRONTERA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CELESTUN TO FRONTERA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE...WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED TONIGHT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H ...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE THE DEPRESSION MOVES INLAND. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE DEPRESSION WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA BY THIS EVENING. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ]]>
  • Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Advisory Number 4
    Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 22 2014 000 WTNT24 KNHC 222031 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 2100 UTC WED OCT 22 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CELESTUN TO FRONTERA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CELESTUN TO FRONTERA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE...WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED TONIGHT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 91.7W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 115 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 91.7W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 91.9W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.0N 91.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 18.6N 90.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 18.0N 89.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.0N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.0N 87.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 18.0N 85.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 18.0N 84.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 91.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ]]>
  • Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 4
    Issued at 400 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 222031 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 400 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 The depression still has a well defined circulation, but the associated convection has been gradually decreasing during the day. Based on earlier reconnaissance data, the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt. Given the deterioration of the cloud pattern and the shear over the cyclone, it is less likely that the depression will attain tropical storm status before it moves inland over the Yucatan peninsula in about 12 hours or less. The NHC forecast keeps the cyclone as a tropical depression through 5 days as it crosses Yucatan and moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. There is also a chance that the system dissipates over land in about 24 hours or so. The GFS changed its tune significantly between the 06z and the 12z runs. It developed a strong tropical storm in the Caribbean in the earlier run, and only a weak trough in the 12z one. On the other hand, both the ECMWF and the HWRF maintain a cyclone for the next few days. This makes the intensity forecast highly uncertain, primarily since the GFS model could redevelop a cyclone in the next run. The depression has been moving slowly toward the east-southeast or 115 degrees at 4 knots. The cyclone is located at the base of a mid-level trough, embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. This pattern will steer the depression on a general eastward track over Yucatan, and as the trough lifts out the depression could meander in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Rains currently affecting western Cuba and south Florida are not directly related to the tropical depression. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 19.2N 91.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 19.0N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/1800Z 18.6N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/0600Z 18.0N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/1800Z 18.0N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 25/1800Z 18.0N 87.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 18.0N 85.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 18.0N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila ]]>
  • Tropical Depression NINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
    Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 22 2014 000 FONT14 KNHC 222031 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 2100 UTC WED OCT 22 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FRONTERA MX 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) BELIZE 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17) 3(20) 1(21) X(21) BELIZE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) 2(14) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA ]]>
  • Tropical Depression NINE Graphics
    Tropical Depression NINE 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 22 Oct 2014 20:33:10 GMT

    Tropical Depression NINE 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 22 Oct 2014 21:04:45 GMT ]]>


Eastern Pacific



NHC Eastern Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific

 


Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
abpz20 knhc 221734
twoep 

tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
1100 am pdt wed oct 22 2014

for the eastern north pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

an area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the gulf of tehuantepec late this weekend or early next
week. environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development
of this system after that time while the low drifts generally
northward.
* formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
forecaster kimberlain



There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
no tropical cyclones as of wed, 22 oct 2014 22:00:08 gmt


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