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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean



NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
abnt20 knhc 021147
twoat 

tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
800 am edt tue sep 2 2014

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico:

the national hurricane center is issuing advisories on tropical
storm dolly, located over the southwestern gulf of mexico.

a tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of west africa
on thursday.  environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for some development through the weekend while the system
moves westward at about 15 mph.
* formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

&&
public advisories on tropical storm dolly are issued under wmo
header wtnt35 knhc and under awips header miatcpat5.
forecast/advisories on tropical storm dolly are issued under wmo
header wtnt25 knhc and under awips header miatcmat5.

$$
forecaster blake


Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm DOLLY (AT5/AL052014)
    ...DOLLY CONTINUES HEADING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 the center of DOLLY was located near 23.4, -96.5 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm DOLLY

  • Tropical Storm DOLLY Public Advisory Number 4
    Issued at 1000 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014 000 WTNT35 KNHC 021432 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 1000 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014 ...DOLLY CONTINUES HEADING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 96.5W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF CABO ROJO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO ROJO TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THIS EVENING...AND MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON...AS WELL AS NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH ]]>
  • Tropical Storm DOLLY Forecast Advisory Number 4
    Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014 000 WTNT25 KNHC 021431 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 1500 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF CABO ROJO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO ROJO TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 96.5W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 96.5W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 95.6W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 24.0N 97.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 24.5N 99.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 24.8N 100.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 96.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ]]>
  • Tropical Storm DOLLY Forecast Discussion Number 4
    Issued at 1000 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014 000 WTNT45 KNHC 021438 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 1000 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014 North-northwesterly vertical shear continues to affect the tropical storm, and the low-level center is located near the northwestern edge of a large mass of deep convection. Arc clouds are also noted to be propagating northward from the system which is indicative of the presence of some dry air at mid levels. Based on observations from the aircraft mission from earlier this morning, the current intensity is held at 45 kt, which is a little above the latest Dvorak estimates. Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into Dolly is scheduled in a few hours to check the intensity. Since the system has been able to intensify overnight in spite of the shear, some additional strengthening is certainly possible before landfall. Weakening after the center moves inland could be more rapid than indicated here, due to the mountainous terrain of northeastern Mexico. The motion has been somewhat faster than earlier estimates and is now near 300/14 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of Dolly should cause a continued west-northwestward motion for the next 24 hours or so and, based on the faster initial motion, the center is likely to cross the coast somewhat earlier than indicated in previous advisories. The current official track forecast is a little ahead of the model guidance but still shows a decrease in forward speed through 36 hours. The primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with precipitation totals possibly approaching 10 inches in a few locations. These rains will likely cause flash flooding and mud slides in regions of mountainous terrain. This threat will continue even after the center moves inland. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 23.4N 96.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 24.0N 97.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 24.5N 99.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/0000Z 24.8N 100.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch ]]>
  • Tropical Storm DOLLY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
    Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014 ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 1500 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CORPUS CHRISTI 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 6 8(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) GFMX 250N 960W 34 22 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) LA PESCA MX 34 19 32(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) LA PESCA MX 50 1 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LA PESCA MX 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TAMPICO MX 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN ]]>
  • Tropical Storm DOLLY Graphics
    Tropical Storm DOLLY 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2014 14:33:00 GMT

    Tropical Storm DOLLY 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2014 15:04:47 GMT ]]>


Eastern Pacific



NHC Eastern Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific

 


Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
abpz20 knhc 021134
twoep 

tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
500 am pdt tue sep 2 2014

for the eastern north pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

showers and thunderstorms have recently increased near a low
pressure area producing gale-force winds, located about 200 miles
southwest of manzanillo, mexico.  if current trends continue,
advisories will be initiated on a tropical storm later this morning.
this system is expected to move slowly northward and then
northwestward near the southwestern coast of mexico and the southern
baja california peninsula during the next few days, and interests in
these areas should monitor the progress of the disturbance.  locally
heavy rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides
over portions of southwestern mexico during the next few days.
* formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

&&

for additional information on the low please see high seas forecasts
issued by the national weather service...under awips header
nfdhsfepi and wmo header fzpn01 kwbc.

$$
forecaster blake


Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm NORBERT (EP4/EP142014)
    ...NORBERT FORMS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Sep 2 the center of NORBERT was located near 17.5, -106.5 with movement NNE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm NORBERT

  • Tropical Storm NORBERT Public Advisory Number 1
    Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 02 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 021445 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 02 2014 ...NORBERT FORMS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 106.5W ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST. NORBERT IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD BY TONIGHT AND THEN WEST- NORTHWESTWARD BY TOMORROW. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE ]]>
  • Tropical Storm NORBERT Forecast Advisory Number 1
    Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 021445 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 1500 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 106.5W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 240SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 106.5W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 106.8W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.6N 107.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.3N 108.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.6N 109.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.1N 110.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.8N 112.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 23.0N 115.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 23.5N 117.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 106.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE ]]>
  • Tropical Storm NORBERT Forecast Discussion Number 1
    Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 02 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 021446 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 02 2014 The area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo now has enough organized convection to be considered a tropical cyclone. Although moderate northeasterly shear is present, banding features are in the southern semicircle of the cyclone along with bursts of convection near the center. The initial wind speed is set to 35 kt in accordance with earlier ASCAT data. Norbert has been moving toward the north-northeast or 020/12. Almost all of the guidance show Norbert turning sharply northward and west-northwestward within 24 hours due to the cyclone leaving the ITCZ and becoming steered by a mid-level high over Mexico. The NHC prediction during this time is on the right side of the guidance envelope, mostly because of the initial motion. After that time, there is some uncertainty in the strength of the ridge over northwestern Mexico, which causes some spread in the model tracks of Norbert while it approaches the southern Baja California peninsula. While the NHC forecast is close to the model consensus after 24 hours, it would not be surprising to see later forecasts be adjusted a bit to the north at longer range, given model trends. The environment near Norbert seems mostly favorable for strengthening during the next few days with the cyclone forecast over warm waters with moderate shear. Given this environment, it is a little surprising that none of the more reliable models makes Norbert a hurricane. Since there is some possibility of land interaction and higher shear, the NHC prediction will be a little above the model consensus, but below the highest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 17.5N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 18.6N 107.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 19.3N 108.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 19.6N 109.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 20.1N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 21.8N 112.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 23.0N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 23.5N 117.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake ]]>
  • Tropical Storm NORBERT Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
    Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 021445 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 1500 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 8(16) 1(17) X(17) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) 1(14) 1(15) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 17(19) 14(33) 5(38) X(38) X(38) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE ]]>
  • Tropical Storm NORBERT Graphics
    Tropical Storm NORBERT 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2014 14:46:38 GMT

    Tropical Storm NORBERT 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2014 15:05:33 GMT ]]>


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