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Tropical Sea Temperatures


Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Infrared Radar Map

Current Atlantic Satellite Loop


Current Atlantic Infrared Satellite Loop

Current Pacific Satellite Loop


Current Pacific Infrared Satellite Loop

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean



NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
abnt20 knhc 290500
twoat 

tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
200 am edt fri jul 29 2016

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico:

a tropical wave located located about 1200 miles east of the lesser
antilles is moving rapidly westward. given the fast motion of the
system, development, if any, will be slow to occur. however, this
system will likely bring showers and gusty winds to portions of the
leeward islands during the weekend, and then, the activity should
spread westward across the caribbean sea.
* formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

shower activity associated with a tropical wave and a low pressure
system centered a couple of hundred miles south-southeast of the
cabo verde islands has increased during the past several hours, but
the overall organization has changed little.  this system has some
potential for development during the next day or two, before the
disturbance encounters a less favorable environment over the central
tropical atlantic next week.
* formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
forecaster avila



There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
no tropical cyclones as of fri, 29 jul 2016 05:54:08 gmt


Eastern Pacific



NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

 


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
abpz20 knhc 290500
twoep 

tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
1100 pm pdt thu jul 28 2016

for the eastern north pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

a broad and elongated area of low pressure located a little more
than 800 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the baja
california peninsula is producing disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms.  upper-level winds are forecast to become more
conducive for development during the next day or two, and a tropical
depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week
while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
forecaster avila



Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone FRANK (EP2/EP072016)
...frank becomes a remnant low... ...this is the last advisory...
 as of 2:00 pm pdt thu jul 28
 the center of frank was located near 24.1, -124.9
 with movement wnw at 7 mph.
 the minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone FRANK Public Advisory Number 29
issued at 200 pm pdt thu jul 28 2016  

000
wtpz32 knhc 282031
tcpep2

bulletin
post-tropical cyclone frank advisory number  29
nws national hurricane center miami fl       ep072016
200 pm pdt thu jul 28 2016

...frank becomes a remnant low...
...this is the last advisory...


summary of 200 pm pdt...2100 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...24.1n 124.9w
about 955 mi...1535 km w of the southern tip of baja california
maximum sustained winds...35 mph...55 km/h
present movement...wnw or 295 degrees at 7 mph...11 km/h
minimum central pressure...1006 mb...29.71 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 200 pm pdt (2100 utc), the center of post-tropical cyclone frank
was located near latitude 24.1 north, longitude 124.9 west. the
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph
(11 km/h), and a gradual turn toward the west and west-southwest is
expected over the next 48 hours.

maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the remnant low
is expected to dissipate by sunday.

the estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


hazards affecting land
----------------------
none.


next advisory
-------------
this is the last public advisory issued by the national hurricane
center on this system.  for additional information on the remnant
low, please see high seas forecasts issued by the national weather
service, under awips header nfdhsfepi, wmo header fzpn02 kwbc, and
on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/nfdhsfepi.shtml.

$$
forecaster stewart




Post-Tropical Cyclone FRANK Forecast Advisory Number 29
issued at 2100 utc thu jul 28 2016  

000
wtpz22 knhc 282030
tcmep2

post-tropical cyclone frank forecast/advisory number  29
nws national hurricane center miami fl       ep072016
2100 utc thu jul 28 2016

there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

post-tropical cyclone center located near 24.1n 124.9w at 28/2100z
position accurate within  30 nm

present movement toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at   6 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1006 mb
max sustained winds  30 kt with gusts to  40 kt.
winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant.  radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

repeat...center located near 24.1n 124.9w at 28/2100z
at 28/1800z center was located near 24.0n 124.6w

forecast valid 29/0600z 24.2n 125.6w...post-trop/remnt low
max wind  25 kt...gusts  35 kt.

forecast valid 29/1800z 24.1n 126.5w...post-trop/remnt low
max wind  25 kt...gusts  35 kt.

forecast valid 30/0600z 23.9n 127.1w...post-trop/remnt low
max wind  20 kt...gusts  30 kt.

forecast valid 30/1800z 23.6n 127.8w...post-trop/remnt low
max wind  20 kt...gusts  30 kt.

forecast valid 31/1800z...dissipated

request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 24.1n 124.9w

this is the last forecast/advisory issued by the national hurricane
center on this system.  for additional information on the remnant
low please see high seas forecasts issued by the national weather
service...under awips header nfdhsfepi and wmo header fzpn02 kwbc.

$$
forecaster stewart





Post-Tropical Cyclone FRANK Forecast Discussion Number 29
issued at 200 pm pdt thu jul 28 2016  

000
wtpz42 knhc 282031
tcdep2

post-tropical cyclone frank discussion number  29
nws national hurricane center miami fl       ep072016
200 pm pdt thu jul 28 2016

frank has been devoid of deep convection for more than 12 hours, and
is now just a large swirl of low-level stratocumulus clouds. since
the cyclone continues to move into an environment of very dry
mid-level air and near 22 deg c ssts, redevelopment of organized
deep convection is unlikely.  on this basis, frank has been
declared a remnant low.  the initial wind speed of 30 kt is based on
an average of subjective t/ci numbers from tafb and sab. given the
very stable conditions ahead of the cyclone, the remnant low should
continue to spin down and dissipate by 72 h.

the initial motion estimate is 295/06 kt. the vertically shallow
remnant low should move westward through 24 h, and then toward the
west-southwest by weak easterly to northeasterly low-level tradewind
flow. the nhc track forecast is similar to the previous advisory
track and lies close to the tvcn consensus track
model.

this is the last advisory issued by the national hurricane center on
this system.  additional information on the remnant low can be found
in high seas forecasts issued by the national weather service, under
awips header nfdhsfepi, wmo header fzpn02 kwbc, and on the web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/nfdhsfepi.shtml.

forecast positions and max winds

init  28/2100z 24.1n 124.9w   30 kt  35 mph...post-trop/remnt low
 12h  29/0600z 24.2n 125.6w   25 kt  30 mph...post-trop/remnt low
 24h  29/1800z 24.1n 126.5w   25 kt  30 mph...post-trop/remnt low
 36h  30/0600z 23.9n 127.1w   20 kt  25 mph...post-trop/remnt low
 48h  30/1800z 23.6n 127.8w   20 kt  25 mph...post-trop/remnt low
 72h  31/1800z...dissipated

$$
forecaster stewart




Post-Tropical Cyclone FRANK Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
issued at 2100 utc thu jul 28 2016                                              

000
fopz12 knhc 282031
pwsep2
                                                                    
post-tropical cyclone frank wind speed probabilities number  29     
nws national hurricane center miami fl       ep072016               
2100 utc thu jul 28 2016                                            
                                                                    
at 2100z the center of post-tropical cyclone frank was located near 
latitude 24.1 north...longitude 124.9 west with maximum sustained   
winds near 30 kts...35 mph...55 km/h.                               
                                                                    
z indicates coordinated universal time (greenwich)                  
   pacific  daylight time (pdt)...subtract 7 hours from z time      
   hawaiian standard time (hst)...subtract 10 hours from z time     
                                                                    
wind speed probability table for specific locations                 
                                                                    
chances of sustained (1-minute average) wind speeds of at least     
   ...34 kt (39 mph... 63 km/h)...                                  
   ...50 kt (58 mph... 93 km/h)...                                  
   ...64 kt (74 mph...119 km/h)...                                  
for locations and time periods during the next 5 days               
                                                                    
probabilities for locations are given as op(cp) where               
    op  is the probability of the event beginning during            
        an individual time period (onset probability)               
   (cp) is the probability of the event occurring between           
        18z thu and the forecast hour (cumulative probability)      
                                                                    
probabilities are given in percent                                  
x indicates probabilities less than 1 percent                       
probabilities for 34 kt and 50 kt are shown at a given location when
the 5-day cumulative probability is at least 3 percent.             
probabilities for 64 kt are shown when the 5-day cumulative         
probability is at least 1 percent.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - wind speed probabilities for selected locations - - - -   
                                                                    
               from    from    from    from    from    from    from 
  time       18z thu 06z fri 18z fri 06z sat 18z sat 18z sun 18z mon
periods         to      to      to      to      to      to      to  
             06z fri 18z fri 06z sat 18z sat 18z sun 18z mon 18z tue
                                                                    
forecast hour    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
location       kt                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
forecaster stewart                                                  



Post-Tropical Cyclone FRANK Graphics



5-day uncertainty track last updated thu, 28 jul 2016 20:33:19 gmt

 
wind speed probabilities last updated thu, 28 jul 2016 21:03:36 gmt



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