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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean



NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
abnt20 knhc 290557
twoat 

tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
200 am edt sat aug 29 2015

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico:

the national hurricane center is issuing advisories on tropical
storm erika, located between haiti and cuba.

showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with
a broad area of low pressure located just west of the coast of west
africa.   environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form during the next
few days while the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward
toward the cape verde islands at about 10 mph.
* formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

$$
forecaster blake

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm ERIKA (AT5/AL052015)
    ...ERIKA STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER HAITI... As of 2:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 the center of ERIKA was located near 18.8, -73.9 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm ERIKA

  • Tropical Storm ERIKA Public Advisory Number 17A
    Issued at 200 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 290532 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 200 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 ...ERIKA STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER HAITI... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 73.9W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic * Haiti * Southeastern Bahamas * Turks and Caicos Islands * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas * The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in eastern and central Cuba, as well as the southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor the progress of Erika. Additional watches and warnings could be needed for these areas later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was estimated near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 73.9 West. Erika is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near eastern Cuba this afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast and Erika could become a tropical depression later today. It is also possible that Erika could degenerate into a trough of low pressure later today while it moves over the high terrain of eastern Cuba. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions across portions of the Dominican Republic are gradually subsiding. Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect Haiti, and spread into the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas during the next few hours, and the central Bahamas later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible over eastern Cuba today and in the northwestern Bahamas by tonight. RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti and eastern Cuba through Sunday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. In addition, the outer bands of Erika are also expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches across the Turks and Caicos Islands as well as the southeastern and central Bahamas through Sunday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan ]]>
  • Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Advisory Number 17
    Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 290247 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 0300 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * HAITI * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS, HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA KEYS...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIKA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS ON SATURDAY AFTER ERIKA MOVES OFF OF HISPANIOLA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 72.9W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 72.9W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 72.0W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.0N 75.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.0N 78.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.5N 80.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 25.0N 82.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.5N 83.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 28.5N 84.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 31.0N 84.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 72.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ]]>
  • Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Discussion Number 17
    Issued at 1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 290248 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 Dropsondes from the NOAA P3 flying around Hispaniola were very helpful in locating the mean center of the broad circulation associated with Erika, which is moving over the high terrain of Hispaniola. There is plenty of deep convection associated with the cyclone, and gusts to tropical storm force are being reported in Barahona, on the south coast of the Dominican Republic. Given that the circulation is interacting with land, the initial intensity has been set at 40 kt. Erika is fighting both land and a hostile wind shear environment, and it will be very difficult for the cyclone to recover. Consequently, weakening in the short term is indicated in the NHC forecast, and there is a strong likelihood that Erika will degenerate to a tropical wave during its interaction with land. However, if it survives, there is a very small opportunity for Erika to regain tropical storm strength in the Florida Straits and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, where the environment is less hostile. It is interesting to note, and to remember, the fact that most of the state-of-the art dynamical models were forecasting Erika to become a strong hurricane up to yesterday, and today basically dissipate the cyclone. The initial motion is uncertain, and the best estimate is toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 17 kt. It seems that Erika has changed very little in forward speed since its formation. However, the cyclone is reaching the southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge and the steering currents are weaker. Therefore, Erika is forecast to slow down and turn to the northwest in about two days. Once in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, a more northerly track is anticipated. There is not much track guidance available tonight since most of the models lose the circulation of Erika, and the NHC forecast is following the weak perturbation observed in the model fields. The greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to be very heavy rainfall over portions of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. These rains could produce flash floods and mudslides. We must emphasize that although this would normally be an appropriate time for a tropical storm watch for portions of southern Florida, following typical timelines, we have elected to wait until we see if Erika survives after it passes Hispaniola. There is a significant chance that no watches or warnings for Florida will be required. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 18.5N 72.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 29/1200Z 20.0N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/0000Z 22.0N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 30/1200Z 23.5N 80.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 31/0000Z 25.0N 82.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 26.5N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 28.5N 84.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 03/0000Z 31.0N 84.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Avila ]]>
  • Tropical Storm ERIKA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
    Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 290247 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 0300 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 1(12) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 1(12) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 1(12) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 1(12) 1(13) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 4(16) 2(18) X(18) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) 3(27) 1(28) 1(29) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 5(29) X(29) 1(30) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 6(24) 2(26) 1(27) MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 9(21) 3(24) 1(25) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 12(20) 4(24) 2(26) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 5(17) 3(20) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) 3(17) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 5(14) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 4(15) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 3(16) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 4(19) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 5(15) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 4(14) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANDROS 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GREAT EXUMA 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) CAMAGUEY 34 X 16(16) 5(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 17 30(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) LES CAYES 34 15 X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 92 X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) CAPE BEATA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER AVILA ]]>
  • Tropical Storm ERIKA Graphics
    Tropical Storm ERIKA 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 29 Aug 2015 05:33:09 GMT

    Tropical Storm ERIKA 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 29 Aug 2015 03:06:51 GMT ]]>


Eastern Pacific



NHC Eastern Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific

 


Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
abpz20 knhc 290527
twoep 

tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
1100 pm pdt fri aug 28 2015

for the eastern north pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

the national hurricane center is issuing advisories on hurricane
jimena, located more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the baja california peninsula.

a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-
southeast of manzanillo, mexico, is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. environmental conditions could be conducive for
some development of this low next week while it moves toward the
west at about 10 mph.
* formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
forecaster blake

Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane JIMENA (EP3/EP132015)
    ...JIMENA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH ON SATURDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 the center of JIMENA was located near 12.3, -124.2 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 957 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

Hurricane JIMENA

  • Hurricane JIMENA Public Advisory Number 10
    Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 290250 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015 ...JIMENA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.3N 124.2W ABOUT 1190 MI...1915 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jimena was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 124.2 West. Jimena is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next 12 to 24 hours. A turn toward the west- northwest is expected by late Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have rapidly increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Jimena is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Jimena is expected to be near category 5 strength on Saturday. After that time, fluctuations in intensity are possible, but Jimena should remain a powerful hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain ]]>
  • Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Advisory Number 10
    Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 290244 TCMEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 0300 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 124.2W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 124.2W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 123.7W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 12.5N 125.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.0N 127.4W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.9N 129.5W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 14.9N 131.9W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.3N 136.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 17.3N 139.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 18.0N 141.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 124.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN ]]>
  • Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion Number 10
    Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 290249 TCDEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015 Jimena is rapidly intensifying. Conventional satellite imagery shows that the hurricane's well-defined eye has warmed and contracted since the last advisory. Its central dense overcast, consisting of very cold cloud top temperatures, has also become increasingly more symmetric. Aside from Jimena's core features, outer bands surrounding the cyclone have also increased and become better defined. Dvorak classifications were T5.5/102 kt from TAFB and SAB at 0000 UTC and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT value is 6.2/120 kt. A blend of these data are used to arrive at an intensity estimate of 110 kt, making Jimena the fourth major hurricane of the season. The initial motion estimate is 275/10, although the cyclone appears to have recently experienced a southward trochoidal wobble. Directly underneath a subtropical ridge to the north, Jimena should maintain a general westward course for the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, Jimena's heading should become west-northwestward as it nears a break in this ridge around 140W, created by a mid-level trough extending southwestward from California. A significant decrease in forward speed is likely after 96 hours when the cyclone reaches the weakness around 140W. The track guidance is tightly clustered through 3 days and is only slightly divergent after that time, with the multi-model consensus trending southward during the last 24 hours from days 3 to 5. The new track forecast has been nudged slightly southward in the short term and a little bit more in the extended range, following the trend in the guidance. The rapid intensification phase that Jimena is undergoing is likely to continue in the short term while it encounters relatively light shear and moves over anomalously high oceanic heat content. These very conducive large-scale factors for intensification suggest that Jimena should reach a peak intensity of near category 5 strength in about 24 hours or so. The hurricane could remain around its peak intensity through 48 hours, even though SHIPS model output shows some drying of the lower to middle troposphere along Jimena's track. However, it should be noted that intense hurricanes such as Jimena frequently experience eyewall replacements that can cause fluctuations in intensity, and their occurrence and evolution are nearly impossible to predict. After about 2 days, a slow decay is forecast since oceanic and atmospheric conditions will only gradually become less conducive. Jimena's continued strenghtening has required an upward adjustment of the intensity forecast in the short term, and the new forecast is in excellent agreement with the statistical guidance as well as the FSU Superensemble output. The new forecast then trends toward the multi-model consensus from days 3 to 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 12.3N 124.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 12.5N 125.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 13.0N 127.4W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 13.9N 129.5W 130 KT 150 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 14.9N 131.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 16.3N 136.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 17.3N 139.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 03/0000Z 18.0N 141.7W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain ]]>
  • Hurricane JIMENA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
    Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 290245 PWSEP3 HURRICANE JIMENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 0300 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN ]]>
  • Hurricane JIMENA Graphics
    Hurricane JIMENA 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 29 Aug 2015 02:44:57 GMT

    Hurricane JIMENA 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 29 Aug 2015 03:08:26 GMT ]]>


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