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NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
abnt20 knhc 241123
twoat 

tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
800 am edt sun sep 24 2017

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico:

the national hurricane center is issuing advisories on hurricane
maria, located a few hundred miles east-northeast of great abaco
island in the bahamas, and on hurricane lee, located over the
central atlantic ocean almost a thousand miles east of bermuda.

tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
forecaster brown

Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane Lee (AT4/AL142017)
    ...TINY LEE A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 24 the center of Lee was located near 31.4, -49.9 with movement SE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Hurricane Lee

  • Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Number 26
    Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 241449 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017 ...TINY LEE A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.4N 49.9W ABOUT 875 MI...1410 KM E OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1375 MI...2210 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 49.9 West. Lee is moving toward the southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. A turn toward the southwest or west-southwest is expected by late Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Lee could be near major hurricane strength on Monday. Lee is a very small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds only extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown ]]>
  • Hurricane Lee Forecast Advisory Number 26
    Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 241448 TCMAT4 HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 1500 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 49.9W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 140 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 49.9W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 50.1W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.1N 49.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.7N 48.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.2N 49.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 30.1N 50.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 30.7N 51.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 32.2N 52.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 35.0N 50.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 49.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN ]]>
  • Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 26
    Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 241449 TCDAT4 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017 The rapid intensification of Lee appears to have slowed for now. Lee has a well-defined 10 to 15 n mi wide eye, but the cloud tops surrounding the eye have not cooled since the previous advisory. Subjective and objective Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB, SAB, and UW/CIMSS all support 75 to 80 kt, and the initial intensity is set at 80 kt. The intensity forecast of the small hurricane is somewhat tricky. As mentioned in the previous discussion, Lee is forecast to remain in a low-shear environment for the next few days, but the slow motion of the hurricane is likely to cause upwelling and a decrease in sea surface temperatures beneath the hurricane. Although the intensity guidance is slightly lower this cycle, the new NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory and brings Lee to near major hurricane strength within the next 24 to 36 hours. Late in the period decreasing sea surface temperatures and increasing shear should impart a weakening trend. Lee has turned southeastward. The track models are similar with the overall forecast scenario of Lee moving slowly southeastward today, then turning west-southwestward or westward late Monday and Tuesday as a high pressure ridge builds to the north and northwest of the hurricane. This ridge is forecast to weaken later in the week, with Lee turning northward, then northeastward ahead of Maria as the mid-latitude westerlies dip southward. There is a large bifurcation in the guidance models after about 48 hours, due to the location and timing of recurvature. The NHC track leans closer to the ECMWF and latest European ensemble mean, but the track forecast is of low confidence. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 31.4N 49.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 31.1N 49.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 30.7N 48.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 30.2N 49.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 30.1N 50.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 30.7N 51.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 32.2N 52.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 35.0N 50.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown ]]>
  • Hurricane Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
    Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 241449 PWSAT4 HURRICANE LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 1500 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS ...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN ]]>
  • Hurricane Lee Graphics
    Hurricane Lee 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 14:54:27 GMT

    Hurricane Lee 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 15:23:35 GMT ]]>

Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)
    ...MARIA SLIGHTLY WEAKER AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD... ...INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 the center of Maria was located near 28.7, -72.9 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 947 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Hurricane Maria

  • Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 34
    Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 241442 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 ...MARIA SLIGHTLY WEAKER AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD... ...INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.7N 72.9W ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts should monitor the progress of Maria. Tropical storm or hurricane watches may be needed for a portion of the coast later today. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 72.9 West. Maria is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Monday night. On the forecast track, the core of Maria will be moving well east of the southeast coast of the United States during the day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 24 hours, but gradual weakening is expected by Monday night or Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Maria are increasing along portions of the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda and will be increasing along the Mid-Atlantic coast later today. Swells also continue to affect Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown ]]>
  • Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 34
    Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 241441 TCMAT5 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 1500 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA. TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 72.9W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT.......100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......210NE 200SE 120SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 270SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 72.9W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 72.8W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.7N 73.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.8N 73.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 31.9N 73.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 32.9N 73.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 34.4N 73.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 35.5N 71.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 36.5N 68.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 72.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN ]]>
  • Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 34
    Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 241443 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft have measured 700-mb flight-level winds of 101 to 117 kt over the eastern and southeastern portion of the Maria this morning. However, surface wind estimates from the SFMR suggest that these winds are not mixing to the surface at the usual efficiency, as the highest SFMR winds on both flights have been around 80 kt. Based on a blend of the flight-level and SFMR winds the initial wind speed has been reduced to 90 kt. The initial motion estimate is 350/8 kt. A north-northwestward to northward motion is expected over the next 2 to 3 days while Maria is steered between a cut-off low/trough over the southeastern U.S. and eastern Gulf of Mexico, and a subtropical ridge over the southwestern Atlantic. Maria is predicted to slow down within the next couple of days as a high pressure ridge builds to the north of the hurricane. After 72 h, Maria should turn east-northeastward as the ridge to the north weakens and a broad mid-latitude trough begins to move eastward over the northern United States. The dynamical model guidance is in good agreement on this overall scenario, but there remains a fair amount of spread on the timing of recurvature, with the ECMWF a little farther west and slower than much of the remainder of the guidance. The updated NHC track is between the ECWMF and the various consensus aids, and very close to the previous official forecast. Since Maria is a large hurricane, the associated tropical-storm-force winds could reach a portion of the North Carolina coast by mid-week regardless of the exact forecast track. Some fluctuations in intensity could still occur during the next day or so while Maria moves over warm water and remains in a low shear environment. Later in the forecast period, cooler waters from the wake of Hurricane Jose that traversed the same area last week will likely cause a gradual decrease in intensity. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria's is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will occur along portions of the coast by midweek. Interests along the coast of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic should monitor the progress of Maria, as tropical storm or hurricane watches may be needed for part of this area later today. 2. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the southeastern United States and are expected to reach the Mid- Atlantic coast today. These swells will likely cause dangerous surf and rip currents at beaches in these areas through much of the week. For more information, please monitor information from your local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 28.7N 72.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 29.7N 73.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 30.8N 73.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 31.9N 73.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 32.9N 73.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 34.4N 73.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 35.5N 71.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 36.5N 68.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown ]]>
  • Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34
    Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 241442 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 1500 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 2(14) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 2(14) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 9(18) 3(21) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 10(24) 3(27) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) 2(17) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 9(26) 3(29) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 5(16) 2(18) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 18(24) 8(32) 1(33) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20(26) 8(34) 2(36) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 22(29) 9(38) 1(39) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 23(35) 10(45) X(45) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) 1(14) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 13(19) 4(23) 1(24) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 18(31) 26(57) 10(67) 1(68) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 8(24) X(24) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 3(15) X(15) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 10(19) 21(40) 7(47) 1(48) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 4( 4) 8(12) 15(27) 22(49) 7(56) 1(57) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) 1(14) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 12(23) 22(45) 7(52) 1(53) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) 17(32) 5(37) 1(38) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 14(27) 4(31) 1(32) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) 12(26) 4(30) X(30) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 8(17) 3(20) 1(21) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 8(14) 3(17) X(17) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 2(12) 1(13) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) $$ FORECASTER BROWN ]]>
  • Hurricane Maria Graphics
    Hurricane Maria 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 14:48:25 GMT

    Hurricane Maria 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 14:48:25 GMT ]]>


Eastern Pacific



NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

 


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
abpz20 knhc 241124
twoep 

tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
500 am pdt sun sep 24 2017

for the eastern north pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

the national hurricane center is issuing advisories on tropical
storm pilar, located near the southwest coast of mexico.

a broad area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern pacific. some gradual
development of this system is possible before it moves inland over
central america in a few days.
* formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
public advisories on pilar are issued under wmo header wtpz33 knhc
and under awips header miatcpep3.
forecast/advisories on pilar are issued under wmo header wtpz23 knhc
and under awips header miatcmep3.

$$
forecaster brown

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Pilar (EP3/EP182017)
    ...PILAR BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 the center of Pilar was located near 19.9, -105.9 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Pilar

  • Tropical Storm Pilar Public Advisory Number 4
    Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 241433 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182017 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 ...PILAR BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 105.9W ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning from Manzanillo to Playa Perula. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The southwestern coast of Mexico from Playa Perula northward to El Roblito, including the Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 105.9 West. Pilar is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slower northward motion is expected for the next two days. Along the forecast track, the center of Pilar is forecast to move along or just west of the coast of Jalisco today and close to or over the Islas Marias and the coast of Nayarit on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Pilar is expected to become a remnant low by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Pilar is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches over the western portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through Monday night. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the southern portion of the warning area this morning, and will gradually spread northward along the Mexican coast through Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Landsea ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Pilar Forecast Advisory Number 4
    Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 241432 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182017 1500 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM PLAYA PERULA NORTHWARD TO EL ROBLITO...INCLUDING THE ISLAS MARIAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 105.9W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 105.9W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 105.9W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.4N 106.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.1N 106.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 21.8N 106.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 22.5N 106.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 105.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Pilar Forecast Discussion Number 4
    Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 241433 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182017 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Pilar has been a difficult tropical storm to analyze and forecast this morning. The overnight short-wave and clean infrared channels from GOES-16 were suggestive that the system had accelerated north-northwestward unexpectedly. However, the available microwave imagery was ambiguous and the spread between the SAB and TAFB Dvorak fixes was a degree. I've re-positioned Pilar north-northwestward significantly, but not as much as may be needed later once additional visible imagery becomes available. The initial motion, then, is a very uncertain 335 degrees at 7 kt, as Pilar is being advected around a deep-layer ridge located over central Mexico. Despite the initial speed up in movement, the guidance insists that Pilar should slow down shortly. The official forecast track is quite similar to the previous one, with a course along or just west of the coast of southwestern Mexico. This forecast is based upon a blend of the GFS, HWRF, and UKMET models. However, the guidance has a large spread (and some of the models could not explicitly track Pilar), and a plausible alternative scenario is that the center of Pilar makes landfall and dissipates shortly thereafter. This alternative is supported by the ECMWF, COAMPS, and HMON models. Hopefully, the 12Z model runs will be more consistent. The initial intensity of Pilar is unchanged at 40 kt, as the SAB and TAFB Dvorak Current Intensity classifications remained the same. While the SSTs are warm and the vertical shear is only moderate for the next 24 to 36 hours, interaction with the high topography of southwestern Mexico may prevent any additional intensification. After about 24 to 36 hours, the vertical shear should go way up as Pilar is affected by strong southerlies associated with a vigorous mid- to upper-tropospheric trough over the southwestern United States. The official intensity forecast is closest to the HWRF model, though none of the guidance now shows any significant intensification. This new forecast is slightly below that from the previous advisory and now calls for Pilar to become a remnant low in about two days. An alternative scenario, mentioned above, is for Pilar to make landfall and dissipate sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 19.9N 105.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 20.4N 106.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 21.1N 106.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 21.8N 106.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 22.5N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Pilar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
    Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 241433 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM PILAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182017 1500 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PILAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 13 24(37) 7(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SAN BLAS 34 2 15(17) 5(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) SAN BLAS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 34 16 5(21) 1(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Pilar Graphics
    Tropical Storm Pilar 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 14:40:07 GMT

    Tropical Storm Pilar 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 14:40:08 GMT ]]>


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