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Tropical Sea Temperatures


Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Infrared Radar Map

Current Atlantic Satellite Loop


Current Atlantic Infrared Satellite Loop

Current Pacific Satellite Loop


Current Pacific Infrared Satellite Loop

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean



NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
abnt20 knhc 302315
twoat 

tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
800 pm edt tue sep 30 2014

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico:

tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
forecaster beven



There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
no tropical cyclones as of wed, 01 oct 2014 03:04:19 gmt


Eastern Pacific



NHC Eastern Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific

 


Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
abpz20 knhc 302326
twoep 

tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
500 pm pdt tue sep 30 2014

for the eastern north pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

the national hurricane center has issued the last advisory on
post-tropical cyclone rachel, located several hundred miles west
of the southern tip of the baja california peninsula.

an elongated area of low pressure a few hundred miles south of the
southern coast of mexico has shown little change in organization
during the past several hours.  environmental conditions conditions
are favorable for a tropical depression to form tomorrow or thursday
while the system moves toward the west-northwest or northwest near
10 mph. regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance
will likely produce locally heavy rains over portions of southern
mexico that could cause flash flooding and mud slides.
* formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
forecaster beven


Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone RACHEL (EP3/EP182014)
...rachel becomes a remnant low... ...this is the last advisory...
 as of 2:00 pm pdt tue sep 30
 the center of rachel was located near 22.9, -117.5
 with movement s at 2 mph.
 the minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Post-Tropical Cyclone RACHEL Public Advisory Number 26
issued at 200 pm pdt tue sep 30 2014  

000
wtpz33 knhc 302057
tcpep3

bulletin
post-tropical cyclone rachel advisory number  26
nws national hurricane center miami fl       ep182014
200 pm pdt tue sep 30 2014

...rachel becomes a remnant low...
...this is the last advisory...


summary of 200 pm pdt...2100 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...22.9n 117.5w
about 485 mi...780 km w of the southern tip of baja california
maximum sustained winds...30 mph...45 km/h
present movement...s or 180 degrees at 2 mph...4 km/h
minimum central pressure...1006 mb...29.71 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 200 pm pdt...2100 utc...the center of post-tropical cyclone
rachel was located near latitude 22.9 north...longitude 117.5 west.
the post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the south near 2 mph...4
km/h...and a slow west-southwestward motion is expected over
the next two days.

maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph...45 km/h...
with higher gusts. continued weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours...and rachel is likely to degenerate into a surface
trough by friday.

the estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.


hazards affecting land
----------------------
none.


next advisory
-------------
this is the last public advisory issued by the national hurricane
center on rachel. for additional information on the remnant low
please see high seas forecasts issued by the national weather
service...under awips header nfdhsfepi and wmo header fzpn01 kwbc.

$$
forecaster cangialosi/ramos



Post-Tropical Cyclone RACHEL Forecast Advisory Number 26
issued at 2100 utc tue sep 30 2014  

000
wtpz23 knhc 302056
tcmep3

post-tropical cyclone rachel forecast/advisory number  26
nws national hurricane center miami fl       ep182014
2100 utc tue sep 30 2014

there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

post-tropical cyclone center located near 22.9n 117.5w at 30/2100z
position accurate within  20 nm

present movement toward the south or 180 degrees at   2 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1006 mb
max sustained winds  25 kt with gusts to  35 kt.
winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant.  radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

repeat...center located near 22.9n 117.5w at 30/2100z
at 30/1800z center was located near 23.0n 117.5w

forecast valid 01/0600z 22.8n 117.8w...post-trop/remnt low
max wind  25 kt...gusts  35 kt.

forecast valid 01/1800z 22.6n 118.4w...post-trop/remnt low
max wind  20 kt...gusts  30 kt.

forecast valid 02/0600z 22.4n 119.0w...post-trop/remnt low
max wind  15 kt...gusts  20 kt.

forecast valid 02/1800z 22.2n 119.9w...post-trop/remnt low
max wind  15 kt...gusts  20 kt.

forecast valid 03/1800z...dissipated

request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 22.9n 117.5w

this is the last forecast/advisory issued by the national hurricane
center on rachel. for additional information on the remnant low
please see high seas forecasts issued by the national weather
service...under awips header nfdhsfepi and wmo header fzpn01 kwbc.

$$
forecaster cangialosi/ramos




Post-Tropical Cyclone RACHEL Forecast Discussion Number 26
issued at 200 pm pdt tue sep 30 2014  

000
wtpz43 knhc 302057
tcdep3

post-tropical cyclone rachel discussion number  26
nws national hurricane center miami fl       ep182014
200 pm pdt tue sep 30 2014

rachel artfully draws to a close. deep convection associated with
rachel dissipated about 15 hours ago and it is unlikely to redevelop
due to unfavorable thermodynamic factors and strong shear.  based on
these conditions, the cyclone is being declared a post-tropical
remnant low at this time. dvorak intensity estimates have decreased
further and the initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt. global
model guidance shows the remnant low degenerating into an open
trough by friday.  the official intensity forecast is close to the
previous forecast and the gfs model.

during the last couple of hours, the now-shallow vortex associated
with rachel has taken on a southward drift.  a slow southwestward
motion is expected during the next two days as it continues to move
around the eastern periphery of a low-level ridge.  the track
forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, nearly
between the ecmwf and gfs model solutions.

this is the last advisory on rachel by the national hurricane
center. for additional information on the remnant low please see
high seas forecasts issued by the national weather service...under
awips header nfdhsfepi and wmo header fzpn01 kwbc.

forecast positions and max winds

init  30/2100z 22.9n 117.5w   25 kt  30 mph...post-trop/remnt low
 12h  01/0600z 22.8n 117.8w   25 kt  30 mph...post-trop/remnt low
 24h  01/1800z 22.6n 118.4w   20 kt  25 mph...post-trop/remnt low
 36h  02/0600z 22.4n 119.0w   15 kt  15 mph...post-trop/remnt low
 48h  02/1800z 22.2n 119.9w   15 kt  15 mph...post-trop/remnt low
 72h  03/1800z...dissipated

$$
forecaster cangialosi/ramos



Post-Tropical Cyclone RACHEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
issued at 2100 utc tue sep 30 2014                                              

000
fopz13 knhc 302057
pwsep3
                                                                    
post-tropical cyclone rachel wind speed probabilities number  26    
nws national hurricane center miami fl       ep182014               
2100 utc tue sep 30 2014                                            
                                                                    
at 2100z the center of post-tropical cyclone rachel was located near
latitude 22.9 north...longitude 117.5 west with maximum sustained   
winds near 25 kts...30 mph...45 km/h.                               
                                                                    
z indicates coordinated universal time (greenwich)                  
   pacific  daylight time (pdt)...subtract 7 hours from z time      
   hawaiian standard time (hst)...subtract 10 hours from z time     
                                                                    
wind speed probability table for specific locations                 
                                                                    
chances of sustained (1-minute average) wind speeds of at least     
   ...34 kt (39 mph... 63 km/h)...                                  
   ...50 kt (58 mph... 93 km/h)...                                  
   ...64 kt (74 mph...119 km/h)...                                  
for locations and time periods during the next 5 days               
                                                                    
probabilities for locations are given as op(cp) where               
    op  is the probability of the event beginning during            
        an individual time period (onset probability)               
   (cp) is the probability of the event occurring between           
        18z tue and the forecast hour (cumulative probability)      
                                                                    
probabilities are given in percent                                  
x indicates probabilities less than 1 percent                       
probabilities for 34 kt and 50 kt are shown at a given location when
the 5-day cumulative probability is at least 3 percent.             
probabilities for 64 kt are shown when the 5-day cumulative         
probability is at least 1 percent.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - wind speed probabilities for selected locations - - - -   
                                                                    
               from    from    from    from    from    from    from 
  time       18z tue 06z wed 18z wed 06z thu 18z thu 18z fri 18z sat
periods         to      to      to      to      to      to      to  
             06z wed 18z wed 06z thu 18z thu 18z fri 18z sat 18z sun
                                                                    
forecast hour    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
location       kt                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
forecaster cangialosi                                               


Post-Tropical Cyclone RACHEL Graphics



5-day uncertainty track last updated tue, 30 sep 2014 20:59:30 gmt

 
wind speed probabilities last updated tue, 30 sep 2014 21:04:44 gmt



Tropical Weather Data (excluded from copyright) courtesy of ...
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National Hurricane Center