Skip to main content.

Tropical Sea Temperatures


Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Infrared Radar Map

Current Atlantic Satellite Loop


Current Atlantic Infrared Satellite Loop

Current Pacific Satellite Loop


Current Pacific Infrared Satellite Loop

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean



NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
abnt20 knhc 181117
twoat 

tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
800 am edt thu sep 18 2014

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico:

the national hurricane center is issuing advisories on hurricane
edouard, located about 900 miles west of the western azores.

a tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure system, is
located just off of the west coast of africa. although shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, environmental conditions
are expected to be at least marginally conducive for some gradual
development of this system over the next several days while it moves
slowly west-northwestward to northwestward over the far eastern
tropical atlantic.
* formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
forecaster stewart


Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)
    ...EDOUARD GRADUALLY WEAKENING... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 18 the center of EDOUARD was located near 39.9, -42.7 with movement E at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Hurricane EDOUARD

  • Hurricane EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 29
    Issued at 1100 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 181435 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014 ...EDOUARD GRADUALLY WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.9N 42.7W ABOUT 755 MI...1210 KM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.7 WEST. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/H. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SLOWER EASTWARD MOTION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT...AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS FROM EDOUARD ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA AND PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY. PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN ]]>
  • Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 29
    Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 18 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 181433 TCMAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1500 UTC THU SEP 18 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 42.7W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 80SE 70SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 120SE 90SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 200SE 180SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 300SE 340SW 430NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 42.7W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 43.9W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 40.1N 39.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 90SE 70SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 160SE 140SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 39.9N 37.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 40.0N 36.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 40.0N 34.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 37.5N 30.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 33.0N 30.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.9N 42.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN ]]>
  • Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 29
    Issued at 1100 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 181436 TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014 A 0906 UTC SSMIS pass showed that the eyewall of Edouard had opened up on the southwest side and the circulation was becoming somewhat tilted with height. This tilt was confirmed by an ASCAT pass around 1230 UTC. The coverage of cold convective tops is gradually decreasing, and the initial intensity is lowered to 70 kt based on a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS. Given that the cyclone will be moving over cooler waters and experiencing increased vertical wind shear, steady weakening is expected during the next 24 hours. Edouard should lose its deep convection in 36 to 48 hours and become post-tropical by that time. Global model fields show the circulation of Edouard dissipating by the end of the period, and that is reflected in the official forecast. The new NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and is close to the IVCN multi-model consensus. The initial motion estimate is now eastward, or 085/22, as Edouard is currently located north of a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. The cyclone will move eastward and then southeastward around this ridge during the next 72 hours, and then turn southward by day 4. Most of the track model guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario, with the continued exception of the GFDL and UKMET which show a more northeastward and southward motion, respectively. The new NHC track forecast is close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models, and is similar to the previous advisory. The initial wind radii were modified based on data from the above-mentioned ASCAT pass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 39.9N 42.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 40.1N 39.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 39.9N 37.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 40.0N 36.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 40.0N 34.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 21/1200Z 37.5N 30.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1200Z 33.0N 30.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan ]]>
  • Hurricane EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
    Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 18 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 181435 PWSAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1500 UTC THU SEP 18 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 12(21) 2(23) X(23) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN ]]>
  • Hurricane EDOUARD Graphics
    Hurricane EDOUARD 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 18 Sep 2014 14:35:00 GMT

    Hurricane EDOUARD 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 18 Sep 2014 15:05:45 GMT ]]>


Eastern Pacific



NHC Eastern Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific

 


Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
abpz20 knhc 181110
twoep 

tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
500 am pdt thu sep 18 2014

for the eastern north pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

the national hurricane center is issuing advisories on hurricane
polo, located less than 200 miles south-southwest of manzanillo,
mexico. the weather prediction center in washington, dc, is issuing
advisories on the remnants of odile, located over extreme
southeastern arizona.

tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
forecaster stewart


Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane POLO (EP2/EP172014)
    ...POLO REMAINS WITH 75 MPH WINDS... ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ON ITS WAY TO POLO... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Sep 18 the center of POLO was located near 17.3, -105.7 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Hurricane POLO

  • Hurricane POLO Public Advisory Number 10
    Issued at 800 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 181435 TCPEP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 800 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014 ...POLO REMAINS WITH 75 MPH WINDS... ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ON ITS WAY TO POLO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 105.7W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 475 MI...760 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST. POLO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE POLO LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. A MEXICAN WEATHER STATION AT THE MANZANILLO AIRPORT IS REPORTING GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER RAIN BANDS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TODAY. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 15 INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF GUERRERO...MICHOACAN...COLIMA AND JALISCO STATES IN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ]]>
  • Hurricane POLO Forecast Advisory Number 10
    Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 18 2014 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 181435 TCMEP2 HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 1500 UTC THU SEP 18 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 105.7W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 105.7W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 105.3W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.0N 106.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.7N 107.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.5N 108.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.4N 109.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.5N 112.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 22.5N 114.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 22.5N 116.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 105.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ]]>
  • Hurricane POLO Forecast Discussion Number 10
    Issued at 800 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 181436 TCDEP2 HURRICANE POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 800 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014 The cloud pattern associated with Polo has not become any better organized during the past several hours. There is a small central dense overcast surrounded by a cyclonically curved convective band. The initial intensity is kept at 65 kt based on Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Polo has the opportunity to strengthen before the northeasterly shear increases in 24 hours as indicated in the NHC forecast. After that time, most of the guidance shows gradual weakening, and in fact, the peak wind indicated by the intensity consensus and the SHIPS models is lower than in previous runs. Cooler waters from the upwelling caused by Odile will likely aid the weakening process. The best estimate of the initial motion is 310/7. A strong ridge of high pressure over Mexico is driving Polo west-northwestward and northwestward. Most of the global models amplify the ridge, and this pattern will continue to steer Polo on the same general track for the next 3 to 4 days. On the forecast track, the cyclone will pass well south of the southwestern coast of Mexico and well south of the southern Baja California peninsula. The confidence in the track forecast is relatively high since both the multi-model consensus TVCN and the average of the GFS and the ECMWF models, GFEX, are predicting a track well removed from land. By the end of the forecast period, a weaker Polo will probably meander embedded within the low-level flow, well away from land. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 17.3N 105.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 18.0N 106.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 18.7N 107.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 19.5N 108.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 20.4N 109.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 21.5N 112.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 22.5N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 22.5N 116.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila ]]>
  • Hurricane POLO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
    Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 18 2014 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 181435 PWSEP2 HURRICANE POLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 1500 UTC THU SEP 18 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 11(15) 13(28) 1(29) 1(30) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 9(22) 2(24) X(24) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 2(14) X(14) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN BLAS 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) P VALLARTA 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 4 4( 8) 3(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) MANZANILLO 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) L CARDENAS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 3( 4) 9(13) 14(27) 7(34) 1(35) X(35) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 3( 5) 6(11) 4(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER AVILA ]]>
  • Hurricane POLO Graphics
    Hurricane POLO 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 18 Sep 2014 14:37:21 GMT

    Hurricane POLO 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 18 Sep 2014 15:06:30 GMT ]]>

Remnants of ODILE Public Advisory Number 34
the nhc has issued its final advisory on this system.  public advisories from the weather prediction center will provide updates as  long as the system remains a flood threat. issued at 800 am mst thu sep 18 2014 


Tropical Weather Data (excluded from copyright) courtesy of ...
Weather Underground Tropical Weather

National Hurricane Center