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Current Pacific Infrared Satellite Loop

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean



NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
abnt20 knhc 302340
twoat 

tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
800 pm edt thu jul 30 2015

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico:

a tropical wave accompanied by an area of low pressure is
located a few hundred miles southwest of the cape verde islands.
this disturbance continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, and some slow development of the system is possible
into early next week while it moves westward at about 15 mph.
* formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
an elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles east of the south carolina coast. this low is expected to move
northeastward and merge with a frontal system on friday, and
significant development is unlikely.
* formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
forecaster cangialosi


There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
no tropical cyclones as of fri, 31 jul 2015 02:48:09 gmt


Eastern Pacific



NHC Eastern Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific

 


Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
abpz20 knhc 302355
twoep 

tropical weather outlook
nws national hurricane center miami fl
500 pm pdt thu jul 30 2015

for the eastern north pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

the national hurricane center is issuing advisories on tropical
storm guillermo, located well to the west-southwest of the southern
tip of the baja california peninsula.

tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
public advisories on guillermo are issued under wmo header wtpz34
knhc and under awips header miatcpep4.  forecast/advisories are
issued under wmo header wtpz24 knhc and under awips header
miatcmep4.

$$
forecaster beven

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm GUILLERMO (EP4/EP092015)
    ...GUILLERMO QUICKLY STRENGTHENING... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Jul 30 the center of GUILLERMO was located near 10.8, -129.3 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Tropical Storm GUILLERMO

  • Tropical Storm GUILLERMO Public Advisory Number 5
    Issued at 800 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 310246 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015 800 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015 ...GUILLERMO QUICKLY STRENGTHENING... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.8N 129.3W ABOUT 1525 MI...2460 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1820 MI...2935 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Guillermo was located near latitude 10.8 North, longitude 129.3 West. Guillermo is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest and an increase in forward speed are expected tonight or Friday, with this motion continuing through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Guillermo is expected to become a hurricane later tonight or on Friday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven ]]>
  • Tropical Storm GUILLERMO Forecast Advisory Number 5
    Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 31 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 310246 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015 0300 UTC FRI JUL 31 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 129.3W AT 31/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 129.3W AT 31/0300Z AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 128.5W FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 11.4N 131.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.3N 134.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.1N 137.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.9N 139.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.5N 143.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 16.5N 146.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 18.0N 149.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.8N 129.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ]]>
  • Tropical Storm GUILLERMO Forecast Discussion Number 5
    Issued at 800 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 310247 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015 800 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015 Microwave and conventional satellite imagery indicate that Guillermo is continuing to become better organized. The microwave imagery shows a developing eye, which has occasionally appeared in visible and infrared imagery. Satellite intensity estimates are 55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the latest intensity estimate from the CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique is 65 kt. Based on these, the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt. Guillermo has turned to the right during the past several hours with the initial motion now 305/12. Other than that, there is little change in the forecast philosophy. The subtropical ridge north of the storm is forecast to strengthen slightly, causing Guillermo to accelerate west-northwestward during the next 36 hours. After that time, a mid- to upper-level low well west of California is expected to produce a break in the ridge, which should cause the cyclone to slow down and turn more northward by day 5. The forecast track from 0 to 72 hours has been adjusted northward based on the initial position and motion. After 72 hours, the forecast guidance has again shifted to the left or west, and the forecast track has also been moved in that direction. However, this part of the forecast lies to the north of the various consensus models. The developing eye seen in microwave imagery shows that the structure of Guillermo is conducive for additional rapid intensification. Also, the Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model shows a 50 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in intensity during the next 24 hours. Based on this, the intensities during the first 48 hours of the forecast have been increased over those of the previous advisory, and this part of the forecast lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. After 48 hours, the cyclone will move over decreasing sea surface temperatures and possibly encounter westerly vertical wind shear. This combination is expected to cause the cyclone to weaken below hurricane strength by 120 hours. It should be noted that the early part of the intensity forecast is of low confidence due to the uncertainties associated with rapid intensification, and the later part is of low confidence due to uncertainties in how much shear Guillermo will encounter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 10.8N 129.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 11.4N 131.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 12.3N 134.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 13.1N 137.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 13.9N 139.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 15.5N 143.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 16.5N 146.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 18.0N 149.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven ]]>
  • Tropical Storm GUILLERMO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
    Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 31 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 310246 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015 0300 UTC FRI JUL 31 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) 13(47) 3(50) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18) X(18) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 2(15) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN ]]>
  • Tropical Storm GUILLERMO Graphics
    Tropical Storm GUILLERMO 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 31 Jul 2015 02:48:06 GMT

    Tropical Storm GUILLERMO 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 31 Jul 2015 02:46:47 GMT ]]>


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