Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast
3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast Updated 2014 Oct 21 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 20/2255Z from Region 2192 (S13E30). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Oct, 23 Oct, 24 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 697 km/s at 21/1308Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 21/0126Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 20/2116Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2238 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (22 Oct, 23 Oct) and unsettled levels on day three (24 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (22 Oct, 23 Oct, 24 Oct). III. Event probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct Class M 65/65/65 Class X 20/20/20 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 21 Oct 199 Predicted 22 Oct-24 Oct 205/210/210 90 Day Mean 21 Oct 135 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct 017/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct 013/015-014/015-013/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/30 Minor Storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/35 Major-severe storm 40/40/40
Real Time Images of the Sun
SOHO EIT 304
SOHO EIT 284
Mauna Loa Solar Image
The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.
Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind
Solar Cycle Progression
Solar Cycle chart updated using the latest ISES predictions.
Real-Time Solar Wind
Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.
The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008. Solar maximum is expected to occur in May, 2013.
Solar X-ray Flux
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites.
Satellite Environment Plot
The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.
Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES
Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.
Credits:Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of: NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center, Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR), and SOHO (ESA & NASA).
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